Impeachment threat affects more than U.S.

House Democrats are using Donald Trump’s call to Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky to initiate formal impeachment inquiries and they have the numbers to make that happen. Trump’s request that Zelensky do him “a favour” and investigate former vice-president Joe Biden is seen by many as the president using his office to advance his political agenda with a foreign leader. Whether that amounts to “high crimes and misdemeanours” remains to be determined. Extensive revelations from whistleblowers provide room for a thorough investigation but, while some Republican senators are calling the incident “troubling,” 18 or more of them would have to break ranks in order to impeach the president.

Besides, after two years of inconclusive probing by Special Counsel Robert Mueller, and with politics polarized more than ever in Washington, the public may not have much appetite for yet another round of political wrangling in which spin overwhelms substance. Skepticism about the effectiveness of Congress is at an all-time high. Keep in mind, too, Trump’s Houdini-like powers of escape from actions that would have finished most normal politicians. An ancillary question mark is whether conflict-of-interest allegations about the financial dealings of Biden’s son Hunter in both Ukraine and China will undercut the former vice-president’s prospects as the Democratic challenger.

After three years of Trump’s nonstop defence of his election as president, the electorate is both fatigued and fractured. Many Americans may prefer an election to resolve matters rather than the vicissitudes of an impeachment inquiry. Nonetheless, Trump is doing what he does best to ensure that another round of political mud-wrestling will backfire on the Democrats. He is in full counterattack mode castigating his opponents and the media in his inimical style with a mix of outrage, exasperation and perhaps desperation. Trump thrives in a no-holdsbarred brawl.

If Articles of Impeachment are approved by the House, the process moves to a trial in the Senate with the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court presiding. But make no mistake, impeachment is not a judicial process, it is inherently political. What is certain, however, is that, as Congress nosedives deeper into the process of impeachment, little of substance, including ratification of the USMCA, is likely to get much traction.

The implications for global affairs are equally unsettling. On his good days, and there have been some, Trump has demonstrated uncharacteristic restraint lately on some global flashpoints. He pulled back from military retaliation against Iran’s shooting down of a U.S. drone and has thus far resisted direct hits on Iran to avenge the bombing of Saudi oil refineries that most believe came from Iran. Maximum economic pressure is still the U.S.’s preferred instrument of power.

Trump also drew back at the last moment from what seemed to be a “cut and run” peace agreement with the Taliban in Afghanistan. Even though he desperately wants to remove most U.S. troops from this never-ending civil war, there is little prospect that will happen soon, although the White House did make a surprise announcement Sunday evening that it was withdrawing U.S. forces from Syria.

Other initiatives have yet to bear fruit. Trump’s warm embrace of Kim Jong Un has not yielded any move by North Korea to denuclearize. Yet, it has given Kim undeserved international stature and legitimacy at a level never attained by his father or grandfather. Meanwhile, America’s two major security allies in Asia — Japan and South Korea — are at loggerheads on trade and on deep-seated, historical grievances that America shows no inclination of trying to mediate.

The mutual stare-down with Iran is tactical not strategic but has the potential to become deadly at any moment. The U.S. abandoned the nuclear agreement with Iran because of its perceived flaws but has no clear Plan B to secure something better. Escalating financial pressures give Iran little appetite for dialogue, let alone compromise.

As host of the next G7 Summit, Trump gratuitously injected a wild card at Biarritz suggesting that Russia be reinstated as a full member. Canada, along with Germany and Britain quite correctly questioned the idea since Russia had been expelled following its illegal and violent annexation of Crimea and parts of Eastern Ukraine — actions it shows no willingness to redress.

Trump may not know that adherence to democratic principles of governance is a foundational principle for G7 membership, one for which Russia under Putin would not qualify. If commitments to democratic principles are no longer essential, China would have a stronger claim. After all, Russia’s economy is less than that of Canada.

Trump being Trump he may get his wish and have Putin attend his G7 Summit just before the U.S. elections. Given ongoing concerns about Russian election meddling, the irony would be startling.

The biggest question mark and a dispute that constitutes the most serious threat to global prosperity and security is the U.S.-China tariff war. All of America’s G7 partners share concerns about the extent to which China flouts international trade rules, e.g. on intellectual property, on forced diversification of technologies and by giving undue state influence to trade and investment. Trump’s allies might have provided leverage but the president abhors multilateral approaches on almost any global issue.

Apart from the implications of the impeachment proceedings, Trump’s electoral prospects hinge heavily on the performance of the U.S economy. The Chinese certainly know that and show little sign of blinking first. They may also sense that Trump will eventually agree to a modest settlement — one that he will celebrate a “total victory” just as he did with the new NAFTA.

None of these global issues will be easier to resolve by a president beleaguered on the home front. Trump may be anxious to pull a foreign policy “victory” out of the blue, one that may attenuate his domestic problems but could have riskier connotations for global affairs. He believes firmly in the value of raw, unfettered “America First” power and in his unique negotiating style. It gives him the media attention he craves and that is his persistent benchmark for success.

The 2020 elections are still more than a year away and the first Democratic primary is not until February but the campaign already promises to be nasty, brutish and expensive. Fasten your seatbelts for a raucous year with surprises still to surface and hope that, despite all the pyrotechnics and questionable behaviour, there is still scope for customary American resilience and renewal.

THE IMPLICATIONS FOR GLOBAL AFFAIRS ARE

EQUALLY UNSETTLING.

STEFANI REYNOLDS / BLOOMBERG President Donald Trump’s Houdini-like powers of escape — as Derek H. Burney puts it — from actions that would have finished most normal politicians have enabled him to remain in The White House.