National Post (National Edition)
The time to overreact is now
Early on Tuesday morning, Ontario Premier Doug Ford declared a state of emergency in his province. Using the province’s broad emergency powers, he ordered the closure of many businesses and gathering places, including theatres, recreation centres, houses of worship and performance venues. Dining establishments will be allowed to remain open, but only to serve takeout and delivery orders. Gatherings of more than 50 people are banned.
It was a good press conference, and the response is right. It also marks a rapid evolution in the premier’s own degree of seriousness on the issue. Just days ago, he was encouraging Ontarians to continue on with their March break travel plans and to have a good time. Now he’s shutting down much of daily life in the province. It’s the right thing to do, but it’s a jarring change.
Yet there’s a lingering question: is it enough?
At the premiers’ conference, he and other provincial officials also made clear what wasn’t shutting down. Office buildings remain open. Mass transit systems remain open. Shopping malls remain open. Most private businesses remain open. Manufacturing facilities remain open. It’s unclear how this will be balanced against the limit on gatherings of over 50 people — is a 51-person workforce at a manufacturing facility acceptable or banned? In any event, it’s clear that there is a lot that Ontario could do, and is aware that it may have to do, that it hasn’t chosen to do yet.
The instinct is understandable. More draconian measures will deepen the already major economic impact of the pandemic and erode public morale. Still, the time for draconian measures is now. Any measure that the Government of Ontario, or any other Canadian government, feels may be necessary a week from now should be implemented today. Aim high. Overreact. And then ease off the restrictions if and when it becomes clear that they aren’t necessary.
In other words, why not pull the trigger on the various options that government officials say they’re considering? Why not further restrict the border, including banning U.S. citizens (there are obvious political and economic dangers here, but it still needs to happen — perhaps a way can be found to do it in co-ordination with the United States). Why not close office towers, malls and transit systems (or at least reduce the hours of transit — the more businesses close, the less public transit will be needed, anyway). Why not simply go all-in and declare that Canada will match the moves already being seen in Europe, and as of Tuesday, Israel, and call for an effective national lockdown, with everyone instructed to remain in their homes, leaving only for essential shopping and medical visits?
That may well be an overreaction at this point in time. But it could also well be that if we don’t do this now, we’ll be doing it in a week or two, and the only difference that delay will mean is that we have a much bigger problem to deal with.
Normally, we value prudence and caution from our governments. Our institutions are slow — that’s often annoying, but can still be seen as a feature, not a bug. Our political system does not enable rapid, radical change. It is (using the term in a non-partisan sense) fundamentally conservative. That’s good.
But it’s also, sometimes, a weakness. Given the possibility of an Italy-style worst-case scenario in Canada or any of its provinces, we should overreact now and revise later. Governments could make a point of publicly revisiting all the various restrictions, say, during a weekly press conference. Public health officials could explain why each measure is being enhanced, maintained or reduced. This would help bring some order to a public communications process that has been a bit scattershot thus far, and also seek to allay concerns among citizens about the necessity and efficacy of the various measures.
In short, it’s time to accept the fact that the countries around the world that have handled this pandemic the best are the ones that responded aggressively and quickly. Due to the lag time in diagnosis and case confirmation, our government officials are probably only able to respond, on a day-to-day basis, to information that’s already days out of date. It’s time to start projecting forward a week or so and adjusting our posture to what we fear we could be dealing with then. This will be disruptive and costly. But it may also save thousands of lives.
Ontario took some smart steps Tuesday. It should go further. And so should our federal government.