National Post (National Edition)
The perception is that they are being open and transparent.
— SHAUNA MACDONALD SAID ALBERTA THE GOVERNMENT HAS PUT IN PLACE EXTENSIVE CRISIS COMMUNICATIONS STRATEGIES.
The models could show how many cases, hospitalizations and deaths the government is expecting as the pandemic spreads through the country. It may also reveal how long Canadians can expect to be stuck in their homes, grinding their lives and the economy to a halt as they attempt to stop the spread of the disease.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford, who was also initially hesitant to release the province’s models, reversed course Thursday. He said Ontario’s top medical officials would brief the public on Friday.
“I have to be up front with people, and I’m going to be, and people will see some really stark figures tomorrow,” he said.
“You deserve the same information I have. You deserve to see the same data I see when I am making decisions.”
Trudeau also softened his stance Thursday, indicating his government was working on releasing the modelling information, but he said they’re working with provinces to ensure they have the best data to be able to paint a clear picture.
“That is sophisticated modelling work that’s being worked on right now, that is ongoing and we look forward to sharing more with Canadians in the coming days,” he said.
He said he did not believe just releasing a wide-ranging scenario was helpful.
“I think people can imagine a range of scenarios that show everything from everyone gets suddenly better within the next few weeks to the situation that keeps getting worse,” he said. “There’s a range out there and just highlighting that range is not as useful or important as being able to get clearer numbers and clearer analysis of what we are likely to face.”
Attaran said the best way to get Canadians to take advice seriously is to show them.
“I would not only disclose our model but I would make a simplified version of it available on a Government of Canada website and I would invite Canadians to play with it,” said Attaran. “I would invite Canadians to move the slider that says how intense our social distancing is. It would make people understand clearly that there’s a trade-off between the intensity of social distancing and the speed with which we emerge from this nightmare.”
Even former health minister Jane Philpott, a former physician who is now working at a COVID-19 assessment centre, lobbied the government on Thursday to release the information.
“This is not the time to hide bad news,” Philpott wrote on Twitter.
U.S President Donald Trump released American projections earlier this week indicating there could be between 100,000 and 200,000 deaths as a result of the outbreak there. Health Minister Patty Hajdu said the models need better information than is currently available.
“In order to do modelling, we need to have accurate data and the provinces and territories have been working really hard to get to a place where they can provide us with that.”