Lockdown expansion makes no sense

in Ottawa

Ontario Premier Doug Ford made the dumbest move of his premiership Monday. His severe pandemic lockdown of the entire province will not only subject millions of Ontarians to unnecessary restrictions, it effectively undermines the idea that his government’s decision-making is driven by science, logic or even a minimum of rationality.

There is a significant COVID problem in Toronto, the GTA and Windsor-Essex. That’s not going to be helped one bit by shutting down everyday life in Ottawa, northern Ontario and other areas where COVID numbers are light.

In his media conference, Ford tried to portray the lockdown as protecting the lowCOVID areas from hordes of invading sick people. He specifically cited Ottawa, a city of one million people that has only 19 COVID cases in hospital, none in intensive care and just 378 active cases.

Apparently, the city faces the hitherto unperceived threat of “droves” of Quebecers surging across the border to infect the populace.

Either those droves are facing a long drive, or they will come from Gatineau, the neighbouring Quebec municipality, which has 28 COVID cases in hospital, zero in intensive care and a total of 404 active cases.

Ford asserted that health officials are telling him that people from high-caseload areas are spreading the virus to other areas. Maybe so, but those health officials didn't offer any proof of that in their own briefing and the numbers would suggest it's not significant.

Even if Ford's fears for Ottawa are correct, there is a far simpler solution: close the bridges to Quebec. Quebecers closed their side earlier this year, so they could hardly complain.

The Ottawa “reasoning” was just one example of a rich buffet of irrationality Ford had on offer. “Schools are not part of the problem,” the premier stated, but he's closing them for weeks anyway. He repeatedly told Ontarians that they could be on the brink of a “catastrophic” situation. Why, just look at what's happening to the William Osler Health System, which runs hospitals in Brampton and Etobicoke. Ford brought hospital CEO Dr. Naveed Mohammad to talk about how bad it was. So, get him some help; don't shut down the entire province over it.

Ford and his team asserted that the province's surgical backlog is now such a problem that the lockdown is necessary to maintain surgical capacity. Ontario's health care system sat on its hands all summer when COVID case numbers were low, failing to seize the opportunity to reduce the surgical backlog. It didn't seem to bother the government back then.

The question of hospital capacity is fundamental to justifying the lockdown, and yet the government boasts that it created 3,100 new hospital beds to help with the pandemic. Now, we're told that the whole hospital system starts to melt down when 300 intensive care beds are dedicated to COVID patients. Something doesn't add up.

In their earlier briefing, Ford's health experts spoke lovingly of the lockdown measures imposed in France and the Australian state of Victoria. Both involved curfews and severe restrictions on all personal movement. You can still walk a dog in France, but don't go more than a kilometre from home. These types of restrictions border on mass house arrest, but Ontario's experts like them because they do bring COVID numbers down. Quelle surprise!

Those severe restrictions are effective in the same sense that amputation below the knee is a sure-fire cure for a sprained ankle. Nevertheless, provincial health experts are going to get their lockdown, and from what they said Monday, the longer the better. Four weeks would make them happy, six weeks ecstatic.

None of the figures and assertions presented Monday capture the greatest harm done by Ford's 180-degree turn on COVID policy. In early November, his government laid out five levels of health-protecting restrictions and offered clear and valid thresholds for moving from one level to another.

It wasn't just another government document. It was a deal with people and businesses. These were the rules of the game. Now, the premier has discarded those rules and replaced them with anecdotes from the worst-hit hospitals and the advice of the most passionate lockdown enthusiasts.

Ford could have imposed more severe restrictions in the most affected areas, creating the maximum benefit for the minimum harm while staying consistent with the approach he has taken for months, balancing health and economic concerns.

Instead, he is telling people in areas where COVID numbers are low to lock down like Armageddon is at hand. Imposing stupid rules encourages people to ignore government rules, including the ones that are necessary. That would be a big problem.

A RICH BUFFET OF IRRATIONALITY FORD HAD ON OFFER.