Mutated virus likely here now, experts say

OTTAWA • It is only a matter of time before a new more infectious variant of COVID-19 is detected in Canada — if it is not already here, say experts. And that could make containing the pandemic more challenging.

The earliest case of the mutant variant of SARSCoV-2 was identified in the Kent area of the U.K. in September and it has spread rapidly from there.

It is now the dominant type of COVID being detected in parts of London and is causing panic there as case counts surge.

Most COVID-19 cases in whom the variant has been identified are under the age of 60, according to the World Health Organization.

Like other countries, Canada suspended flights from the United Kingdom earlier this week in an attempt to prevent spread of the variant here. But experts in viruses and epidemiology say chances are good that it is already here and has not been detected.

“It is more like the horses have run out of the barn already,” Ottawa-based virologist Earl Brown said.

Initial analysis found the variant is significantly more infectious than the original coronavirus. Investigations are underway to determine whether it causes more severe illness, changes antibody response or vaccine efficacy.

In Canada, no case involving the variant has been identified, but work is under way to determine “if this variant is present or has been previously observed in Canada,” a Health Canada representative said.

Among labs involved in surveillance for the U.K. variant is the Eastern Ontario Regional Laboratory Association’s virology lab in Ottawa.

So far, sequencing data at the lab has not identified the variant.

Dr. Barbara Yaffe, Ontario’s associate chief medical officer of health, said Ontario’s public health laboratory is also doing “careful surveillance” to look for the variant and other mutations.

“The good news is we don’t have any evidence of this mutant strain in Ontario at this point. It is preferable that we don’t get the strain in Ontario because it is more transmissible and would result most likely in more cases.”

Since September, the lab has conducted additional sequencing on more than 1,500 positive samples and has not identified the variant, said Dr. Vanessa Allen, chief of microbiology and laboratory science at Public Health Ontario. Work continues to monitor and understand changes to the virus, she said.

But health experts say it is only a matter of time. It has been identified in Australia, Italy, Belgium and Denmark.

Brown, the Ottawa virologist, said at least one other mutation of SARS-CoV-2 has been identified previously in Canada. Because the U.K. variant is so successful at spreading, he said it would not be surprising to find it in Canada.