National Post (National Edition)
What will 2021 bring?
CANADIANS ARE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT GETTING A VACCINE, NOT SO MUCH ABOUT A STANLEY CUP: POLL
Mmost Canadians expect they're going to have to pay more taxes in 2021, and that they' ll put some effort into returning to normalcy this year, though many won't be travelling, according to a new poll from Leger and the Association for Canadian Studies.
The poll says 59 per cent of Canadians believe they're going to pay more tax, though there's a slight split between anglophones (62 per cent) and francophones (47 per cent).
A majority (54 per cent) also say they think they will be able to host more friends and families, with 72 per cent of French speakers predicting they'll be able to do so, and 49 per cent of English speakers saying they'll be able to do so. Quebec, at 70 per cent, is most optimistic about returning to some degree of normalcy with friends and family, while British Columbia, at 42 per cent, is the least optimistic.
People from the other provinces fall somewhere in the middle: 48 per cent of Albertans hope they will have parties, compared with 52 per cent of those in Atlantic Canada, 47 per cent in Ontario, and 68 per cent in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
“That's what they think is going to happen, but a lot of people don't think that's going to happen because they think the COVID crisis and the restrictions will persist across 2021,” said Jack Jedwab, president of the Association for Canadian Studies and chair, COVID-19 Social Impacts Network. “I think the people who are not as enthusiastic ... are not as optimistic about the restrictions being loosened.”
But few Canadians expect to return to a packed concert anytime soon. Just 29 per cent say they expect to attend a concert this year.
Only 34 per cent of Canadians expect to be able to take a vacation outside the country this year. The breakdown between rancophones and anglophones are pretty similar when it comes to travel plans — just 34 and 33 per cent of French and English speakers, respectively, plan to leave the country on holidays.
Given all this, a slight majority thinks the U.S. border will reopen for regular travel in 2021. Fifty-eight per cent of Canadians overall think that'll be the case, with the most optimistic being Conservatives and Green Party voters (65 per cent), followed by Bloc voters (63 per cent), then Liberals at 58 per cent and New Democrats at 51 per cent.
Still, few think they'd actually travel to the United States. About 65 per cent of Canadians say they would not be comfortable travelling to the United States, with 23.5 per cent saying they would be comfortable crossing the border.
Most Canadians, at 66 per cent, plan to get a COVID vaccine. Provincial rates are similar, but there's some disparity among political parties: 53 per cent of Conservative voters plan to get the vaccine, compared to 75 per cent of Liberals, 76 per cent of Greens, 62 per cent of Bloc Quebecois voters and 74 per cent of New Democrats.
Jedwab sees a link between vaccines and the border. The rate of those planning to get vaccinated in the U.S. is 48 per cent, and, if those rates are disproportionately lower than in Canada, it might not be likely, he says, that the border will actually reopen.
Meanwhile, small numbers of Canadians expect to turn to that hallowed New Year's resolution of going on a diet. Just 24 per cent of francophones plan to diet compared with 32 per cent of English speakers, and 37 per cent in the other provinces category.
And speaking of a return to normal, Canadians are grim about the prospects of winning the Stanley Cup. Just 31 per cent of Canadians say a Canadian team will win the NHL's top prize this year.
On the political front, just 36 per cent of those polled expect there to be a new prime minister in 2021.
The poll was conducted between Dec. 11 and 13, from a sample of 1,528 participating in a web panel. The pollster says no margin of error could be “associated” here, the probability sample of that number of respondents would have a margin of error of +/- 2.5 per cent, 19 times out of 20.