National Post (National Edition)
Senate victories make Biden's work easier
Co-operation with GOP still required: Expert
OTTAWA • When President elect Joe Biden takes office in less than two weeks, he will do so with a strategic advantage, as his party will control both the House and Senate, but experts say that control is tenuous.
After a riot by a mob of President Donald Trump's supporters rampaged through the capital Wednesday, legislators went ahead with the certification of the election results and Biden will be sworn in on Jan. 20. Earlier this week, Democrats also won two key races in Georgia. Jon Ossoff and Rev. Raphael Warnock both won seats that had been held by Republicans in the state.
Their victories make the U.S. Senate an even split, but incoming vice-president Kamala Harris will be the tiebreaking vote.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has said he looks forward to working with Biden's team and with democratic control of the legislative process that could be easier. But Melissa Haussman, a political-science professor at Carleton University, said there will have to be some co-operation with Republicans.
“It's a divided Senate. It's 50/50 and they're going to have to come to some power-sharing agreement,” she said. “It's not like Democrats having, you know, five more seats than the Republicans or something like that.”
One of the big potential tensions between Biden's administration and Trudeau's will be over the Keystone pipeline. Biden has pledged to cancel the permit for the project, which he can do without any oversight from Congress.
Trudeau has said he hopes to change Biden's mind about the project.
In addition to hoping the pipeline will improve prices for Alberta oil, the provincial government is a direct investor in the project and committed $1.5 billion for its construction.
But if Biden wants to move ahead with a climate change plan or make investments in green energy, as he pledged to do, he will need Senate support.
Haussman said the Senate majority, even a thin one, does give Biden more room to move on that agenda. She said outgoing Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell, a Republican, also sounded more contrite Wednesday, a possible sign he won't fight everything Biden intends to do.
“He may be more willing to negotiate than he might otherwise have been, so certainly I'm hopeful,” she said. “I do think that the changed architecture will matter. I'm just not sure how much.”
Eric Miller, president of the Rideau Potomac Strategy Group and fellow at the Woodrow Wilson Centre, said even with a majority, not all of Biden's Democratic Senators view the world the same way.
“There is diversity in the caucus among the Democrats, so that it's not like they're just going to show up and do everything Biden wants.”
Miller points to West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin, who is a Democrat, but differs from many of his colleagues on several issues including climate change. He said while many Democrats want a “Green New Deal,” as a climate plan, others are concerned about jobs in resource industries.
“One of the main friction points that you will see within the Biden world, are disagreements over whether the climate plan will be more ambitious and far-reaching or less ambitious,” he said.
Control of the Senate does mean the Biden administration is likely to get the cabinet secretaries and other officials it wants for key positions and will set the legislative agenda.
“The Democrats will control what gets investigated or doesn't get investigated and they'll prioritize what gets time on the legislative calendar,” said Miller.
Miller said for Trudeau, having Biden in office instead of Trump will be a welcome change, but while Trump's demands were often outlandish and easy to ignore, Biden's will be harder to say no to.
“It's good to have a friend from the perspective of the Trudeau government in the White House. It doesn't mean that friend isn't going to ask for things that you wish they didn't.”
He said as an example Biden may want to take a more aggressive stance with China, which Trump pushed for as well, but the outgoing president didn't pressure allies to work with him confronting Beijing.
“The Biden folks have made very clear they think the Trump failure on China has been that they didn't bring the Europeans, Canada, Australia and Japan and others who are naturally China skeptics along.”