National Post (National Edition)
The first 100 days
HOW WILL PRESIDENT BIDEN FARE? THE COURSE FIGURES TO BE SET EARLY
When Joe Biden takes charge after the inauguration on Jan. 20, it will be with a very ambitious agenda, one he has described as “the most progressive of any U.S. administration.” But he would be mistaken to interpret the election verdict as a mandate. He barely campaigned on his platform and won what ultimately became a referendum on Donald Trump primarily because he was the alternative. Choices he makes on priorities for the first hundred days will set the tone for his ability to get things done.
His first task will be to deal with the fallout from the mob attack on the Capitol building, incited by President Trump to protest the election result. The day of desecration ended ultimately in resilience with formal ratification of the election result thus reinforcing the most fundamental tenet of any genuine democracy — the peaceful transfer of power. But the incident has cast a pall over Washington and the fabric of America's democracy. The nation is sharply divided politically. Public trust in governance and in the media are at alltime lows in America.
Trump was impeached again by the House of Representatives, including 10 Republicans, but is less likely to be convicted by a two-thirds Senate vote. Instead of clearing the air, the impeachment initiative has intensified an acrimonious political mood with threats of more violence at a time when many Americans wanted to exhale and move forward.
Biden could designate a bipartisan commission to investigate the assault on the Capitol building and ensure greater accountability for the perpetrators, their enablers and the defenders who were ill-prepared and grossly undermanned. The objective would be to ensure that the heart of American democracy is less vulnerable in future. For the inauguration, it is literally an armed camp.
Given the chaos on Capitol Hill that prompted the impeachment, Biden's pledge to “heal the nation” and rekindle public trust now takes on greater urgency. He has already promised to bring a US$1.9-trillion COVID-19 relief package to Congress immediately after the inauguration and has committed to deliver 100 million doses of vaccines in the first hundred days. (Another spending bill on infrastructure and climate change is expected in February.)
The pandemic is still the dominant concern of Americans and, as Ezra Klein has written, the government needs above all to demonstrate that it can “help people fast.” Biden might also commission a non-partisan, blue-ribbon panel to assess what went right and wrong in responding to COVID, along with guidance for the future.
Another sensible move would be to reduce the transition period in future to one month instead of the outdated and ragged two and one-half months.
Along with COVID relief, infrastructure may also offer scope for common ground. Biden's personal relationship with Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell could help. But potentially fruitless deliberations on impeachment may disrupt his legislative objectives.
On day one Biden intends to follow Trump's example and make maximum use of executive powers to overturn much of Trump's handiwork on deregulation, immigration and climate change by fiat, bypassing Congress.
By capturing both Senate seats in the Georgia runoffs the Democrats moved into a 50/50 tie with the Republicans, leaving Vice-President Kamala Harris with the casting vote. It should certainly make confirmation of Biden's cabinet choices easier. With a tenuous Senate majority, he could also move to increase taxes for corporations and wealthy individuals, but a political calculus may temper the timing, if not the package.
Joe Manchin, the Democratic senator from West Virginia, has signalled publicly that he will not support some radical elements of the Democrat agenda like packing the Supreme Court or ending the filibuster that sustains the need for 60 votes on key legislation or vestiges of the Green New Deal. Unanimity among Democrats is not a sure thing.
What Biden has going for him is an innate ability to work with Congress, better many believe than any of his predecessors since Lyndon Johnson. He will need that and then some. Biden also has a generally uncritical media, many members of which have been unable to contain their visceral hatred of Trump. Despite an FBI criminal investigation into allegations regarding Biden's son Hunter, the mainstream media has ignored the issue.
There is no consensus in America on such fractious issues as health care, energy versus climate change and social disorder, nor on taxes, so Biden will be constrained on what he can achieve. He should start with issues that have some prospect for success having learned the hard way under president Barack Obama that time and energy can be squandered if the priorities selected have little chance of approval. Despite having a majority in both houses of Congress in its first two years, the Obama administration's level of achievement was dismal.
On foreign policy, the initial changes will likely be more on tone or style than any radical policy shift. Boldness is less likely from a team of conventional, foreign policy elitists more inclined to manage processes than to respond aggressively. (His State and National Security nominees have been snidely dubbed by some as the “Obama B team.”)
Biden will seek to repair some of the damage to the Western alliance, aiming for more consultation and collective alliance responses to looming challenges rather than unilateral impulses.
He may revert to form and choose Canada for his first foreign visit.
China and Russia each pose significant threats to the U.S. and its allies and these will be inescapable if not dominant priorities. Recent cyberattacks on America should be an easy target for enhanced alliance vigilance. Consensus on other threats will not come easily. Chafing at their treatment by Trump, the Europeans have already moved out front concluding an investment agreement with China, one that the Americans tried unsuccessfully to forestall. Meanwhile, traditional allies in Asia concluded a trade agreement with China, action that runs counter to the objective of the Trans-Pacific Partnership that Trump vehemently spurned.
Actions to bolster rather than undermine institutions like the WTO and WHO may be easier to achieve.
If Biden tries, as he has stated publicly, to reinstate the nuclear deal with Iran, he may lose in a fight with Congress. Besides, with Iran's presidential elections scheduled in June, now may not be a propitious time to expect compromise from Tehran.
On the Middle East more generally, the U.S. could build on Trump's achievements bridging the gap between Arab States and Israel and laying the groundwork for more of the same — actions that would isolate rogue regimes like Iran and Syria while consolidating a new basis for regional stability.
Gridlock tends to be endemic in Washington. Whether Biden can overcome that tendency will be his most severe test. It is hard to anticipate much collective will when retribution is the emotion of the moment. As Ian Bremmer wrote in Time, “We do not have a vaccine for our political divisions.” Biden faces daunting challenges at home and abroad. His most difficult task will be to determine how best to respond in a manner that will help restore trust in America's democracy.