National Post (National Edition)
(Trudeau)
Ottawa has obligation after Keystone shock
has some grounds for disquiet about the way Biden broke the news. Multiple sources confirm that the presidentelect told the prime minister in November that he'd take his time and consider the case.
Douglas Stuart's Booker Prize winning novel about Hugh “Shuggie” Bain, a sensitive boy growing up in a tough housing estate near Glasgow in the 1980s while tending to his alcoholic mother, is a gripping, relentlessly grim portrayal of a society in transition from industrial hub to … well, at the time no-one was quite sure what.
The backdrop to Shuggie's story is the poverty, unemployment and hopelessness of an economy bypassed by “progress” and the impact on those all but abandoned by the state.
As Stuart describes it, the bones of industry “lay about the city like rotted dinosaurs.”
Alberta risks similar decay, as its oil and gas industry is constricted by lack of pipelines.
Watching Premier Jason Kenney rage against the “gut punch” of President Joe Biden's decision to cancel the Keystone XL pipeline on the day of his inauguration brought to mind the common characteristic of all politicians in all places at all times when political forces beyond their control take hold: impotence.
Kenney suggested that Canada impose trade sanctions if the U.S. refuses to discuss Keystone.
He said that the decision is “an insult directed at the U.S.'s most important ally and trading partner.” It was pure bluster.
While Justin Trudeau expressed himself “disappointed” at Biden's decision, he is as likely to follow up on Kenney's suggestion as he is to emerge for his next press conference at Rideau Cottage wearing a pair of Bernie Sanders' mittens.
It is true that Trudeau has supported Keystone since he spoke to the Calgary Petroleum Club in fall 2013 — exempting it from the stringent emissions requirements his government placed on subsequent pipelines.
He has some grounds for disquiet about the way Biden broke the news. Multiple sources confirm that the president-elect told the prime minister in November that he'd take his time and consider the case. In the event, he announced the decision on the day of his inauguration, two days before his scheduled call to Trudeau, the first to a foreign leader.
While there may be some bruised feelings, Trudeau and Biden are reading from the same liturgical text when it comes to climate change. The prime minister is not going to risk a schism over an oil pipeline.
A more accurate sense of the Trudeau government's position came from Environment Minister Jonathan Wilkinson who said Ottawa won't dwell on Biden's decision. “Canadian energy opportunities with the U.S. are bigger than any one project,” he said.
Trudeau has danced with a U.S. president on Keystone once before. Trudeau was sworn in as prime minister on November 4, 2015. Two days later, president Barack Obama rejected TC Energy's application for Keystone.
At the time, the rookie prime minister was trying to deflect American indignation over the decision to withdraw Canadian fighter jets from the campaign against ISIS, so there were no repercussions.
This time, Canada will be seeking a win from Biden. As Wilkinson indicated, Ottawa will be looking for a commitment on energy integration in other areas and exemptions from Buy American protectionist measures.
In particular, the government is concerned about the potential knock-on effect of Keystone on other pipelines, like Enbridge's Line 5, which Michigan's governor (and Biden inauguration campaign co-chair) Gretchen Whitmer is trying to shut down.
Since it carries 540,000 barrels of petroleum products a day to Ontario, it can be assumed that Trudeau will fight like a cornered wolverine to keep it open.
But it is clear that Keystone is dead, for all Kenney's hollow threats. He and his team feel the federal government has failed to defend the energy industry — and they are justified to feel that way. Trudeau was always likely to be a capricious supporter of the oilsands.
But mistakes have been made at all levels.
The premier took a calculated gamble with taxpayers' money by investing $1.5 billion in Keystone and has lost big time. The bet wasn't on Donald Trump winning — at the time of the investment Biden had not signed a “No to KXL” pledge.
The wager was that his union base would prove more influential than the green faction.
That proved to be a bad bet. But it wasn't until Alberta had signed up for the equity investment that Biden said he would cancel the project. Such an excuse is hardly likely to resonate with taxpayers looking for politicians to blame.
But the fact the premier was willing to take such a long-odds punt indicates how desperate Alberta's position is.
Kenney made the case that Canada is part of the solution to energy transition and that TC Energy has committed to Keystone being net zero in terms of emissions by investing in renewable electric capacity along its footprint.
Biden “owes” Canada the respect of at least sitting down and talking, Kenney said. But the reality is, Biden doesn't owe Alberta anything.
The province is in danger of losing its sense of purpose and Biden's election is only going to accelerate that process. The federal government, on the other hand, does owe the province for decades of fiscal contributions.
As the world moves away from fossil fuels, it should be one of the federal government's top priorities to ensure a just transition, using the billions in stimulus spending it has earmarked to retool the energy industry and retrain its workers.
The bones of the oil industry cannot be left lying around the province like rotten dinosaurs, while the survivors are left to fend for themselves.