National Post (National Edition)
Bibi's political genius being put to the test
There are those who pray for miracles and those who create them. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu falls in the latter category.
Facing his fourth election in two years on March 23, in some ways, his political fate has never looked so dire. The right-wing bloc he has held together through multiple crises is now threatened by powerful dissenters, including former Likud Party cabinet minister Gideon Sa'ar, who recently broke ranks to form the New Hope party.
Sa'ar has a strong list of candidates who are hell-bent on ensuring that Netanyahu does not form another government. Indicted on multiple criminal charges, Netanyahu is perceived by many to have subverted the national interest to further his own.
Even the unquestioning support of Netanyahu by the ultraorthodox parties is a little wobbly. For the first time in many years, party leaders are indicating that they may take a more pragmatic look at the field — meaning that, if necessary, they would abandon a Likud-led coalition.
Netanyahu's base is a hardbaked 25 per cent of the electorate, leaving a big chunk up for grabs. But, as always, the vote will diffuse among too many parties with the crown going to the party leader tapped to negotiate a majority coalition. Almost always, the kingmaker is a party with a relatively small number of seats that hold the balance of power.
Lists of party candidates for the March election were published late last week, which is when Israeli election campaigns really gear up. While most leaders and aspiring members of the Knesset campaign Israeli-style — frenetic, opportunistic and reactive — Netanyahu is, as he so often does, operating on another plane. He has been known to remark that while others play checkers, he's playing chess. And word is that he's a formidable opponent.
As a political tactician, Netanyahu is in another stratosphere. This election is really about two issues: challenges with the ultraorthodox and the widespread perception that they operate autonomously and with impunity; and whether Netanyahu should remain prime minister. And so, in the last few days, the prime minister has subjected the nation to yet another lesson in how to get ahead and, quite possibly, win — against the odds.
On Monday evening, immediately following Channel 12's main news broadcast, Netanyahu appeared in the studio for a chat with Yonit Levy, the station's senior anchor. His customary method of commandeering the airwaves in recent years has been to convene press conferences that coincide with the nightly news. However, when he has meandered off his key message — and into hardcore politicking — the networks have cut him off.
It's much more difficult to manage the chatty prime minister when he is ensconced in the studio, and Levy was no match for Netanyahu. He took control and gloated off the top about the magnificently successful coronavirus vaccine rollout in Israel — “No. 1 in the world.” He then segued, ignoring her cues, into speaking about the imminent opening up of society and the economy, which begins in earnest on Sunday.
In terms of a scoop, Levy extracted almost nothing; Netanyahu, however, scored more than a half-hour of uninterrupted campaigning to the nation. It was a home run.
Netanyahu has been around this mulberry bush many times and has clearly learned to maintain the suspense, tension and momentum. And so, on Tuesday, amidst the chatter about his TV appearance, he hit up the country with another zinger.
By mid afternoon, there was buzz about an emergency cabinet meeting being convened at 6 p.m. If it was an urgent military issue then in all likelihood it would have been limited to the security cabinet. But the leak focused attention and heightened anticipation, and dominated the news cycle, exactly as Netanyahu anticipated it would.
It turned out to be about a small prisoner swap between Israel and Syria that was mediated by the Russians. Two Syrian shepherds who had crossed into Israel and a 25-year-old lapsed ultraorthodox woman who wandered “accidentally” into Syria have all now been repatriated. This unusual episode allows the prime minister to boast about his relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, without which this would never have happened — which, of course, is exactly what he said in media interviews. Another home run.
The hat trick was completed by the much-anticipated phone call between Netanyahu and U.S. President Joe Biden. For weeks, the Israeli media have been interpreting the fact that Biden had not yet called Netanyahu as being a sign of everything from a nonissue, to a harbinger of a strained relationship between the United States and Israel.
The reality, likely, is much more pedestrian. In sharp contrast to the past four years, the Biden administration has reverted to protocol and discipline, in this case meaning that there is an established order for initial presidential phone calls to foreign leaders. And Israel is not at the top of the list.
In the end, though, Netanyahu and Biden had an hour-long schmooze on Wednesday night that included a priceless photo of a beaming Bibi tweeted to the nation. The message: “Bibi. In a different league.”
Not surprisingly, that exact phrase was his campaign slogan in last September's election. It was plastered on billboards and buildings throughout Israel, alongside photos of him palling around with, you guessed it, Putin and U.S. president Donald Trump.
These are early days in what promise to be a pretty wild six weeks: a reopened economy, an almost fully vaccinated population and a very lively string of surprises.
EARLY DAYS IN WHAT PROMISE TO BE A PRETTY WILD SIX WEEKS.