It's elementary, Jaguars ... trade for Watson

Never mind drafting Trevor Lawrence No. 1 overall. Instead, the Jacksonville Jaguars ought to ship their top NFL Draft pick, and others as required, to the Houston Texans in exchange for dazzling quarterback Deshaun Watson.

Talk about a blockbuster trade. If I were Jaguars GM Trent Baalke, and the Texans and Watson himself were amenable, I’d do it. In a finger snap.

Watson is young (25 years old), has most of his career ahead of him (he’s entering only his fifth NFL year) and — most importantly — is a proven, elite-level pro.

By contrast, recent history tells us that even a QB drafted No. 1 overall is unlikely to pan out. To get you to the promised land.

Don’t believe it? Then consider these startling conclusions from the past 15 NFL draft classes (2006-20):

— Of the 10 No. 1 overall QBs, only two have started a Super Bowl game (20 per cent) and neither won (zero per cent). Namely, Cam Newton with Carolina in 2015 and Jared Goff with the Los Angeles Rams in 2018.

— Of the 15 annual first QBs to be drafted, whether No. 1 overall or not, only three have started a Super Bowl game (again 20 per cent) and none won (zero per cent). Namely, Newton, Goff and Atlanta’s Matt Ryan in 2016.

— Of the top five QBs selected annually since 2006, only six of 75 have started a Super Bowl (eight per cent) with only two winning (2.7 per cent). Namely, Joe Flacco of Baltimore in 2012 and Patrick Mahomes of Kansas City in 2019.

— Even if you expand that list to include the top seven QBs drafted annually over the past 15 years, only nine of 105 (8.6 per cent) have started a Super Bowl, with only four winning (3.8 per cent): Flacco, Mahomes, Russell Wilson of Seattle in 2013 and Nick Foles of Philadelphia in 2017.

— Super Bowls aside, only one of 12 QBs drafted first in any year from 2006-17 remains with the team that selected him: Ryan of Atlanta (2008). That’s presuming the Chicago Bears don’t resign 2017’s No. 2 overall pick Mitchell Trubisky, whose unextended rookie contract is set to expire in less than a month.

Of course, a quarterback alone cannot take a team to an NFL championship. But without a passer performing at a high level come the playoffs, even an otherwise talent-drenched team has little chance to win a conference championship, let alone a Super Bowl.

So then, why would you roll the dice on a top five — or even a No. 1 overall — QB prospect in this year’s draft, no matter how ballyhooed when, in a rarity, there’s a known, established star QB quantity presumably available in Watson, probably for three top draft picks over the next 14 months?

Watson wants out of Houston, following months of increasingly alienating, bizarre and dysfunctional actions by club leadership. It’s not as though the Texans are averse to such a transaction; just last Friday the club, by mutual agreement, released its longtime ‘face of the franchise’ defensive player, end J.J. Watt.

The Texans likely won’t soon turn around their fortunes. They finished 4-12 in 2020 in spite of Watson’s nearly non-stop aerial heroics. He was surrounded by substandard pass-catchers and running backs, and was protected by a poor offensive line, yet led the NFL in passing yards (4,823) and yards per attempt (8.9), ranked second in passer rating behind only MVP Aaron Rodgers (112.4) of the Green Bay Packers, ranked third in completion percentage (70.2 per cent) and tied for seventh in touchdown passes (33).

What’s more, the Texans defence ranked among the worst in the league, including dead last in take-aways with only nine. In other words, Houston’s defence further hurt Watson and the offence. Yet Watson kept his mouth shut all season and sparkled nonetheless.

The Texans have said they won’t trade him. But if the young man is disgruntled and badly wants out — as reports for weeks have maintained — then probably it’ll become just a matter of the Texans holding out for the best offer.

No one but the Jaguars can offer this year’s No. 1 overall draft pick.

Up to half the league’s 32 teams ought to breathlessly join the battle for Watson’s services. Including Jacksonville, which earned the No. 1 overall draft pick on April 29 by virtue of the finishing the 2020 season with the worst record in the league at 1-15.

Let’s say, in the Jaguars’ case now, they could obtain Watson in exchange for this year’s No. 1 overall pick and the No. 33 overall pick (first selection of Round 2), and a high pick in 2022 if additionally necessary?

You could instead use each of those three selections on the best QB available at the time, and likely not get anyone who’d ever pan out nearly as well as Watson already has done.

Sure, Lawrence — the Clemson University standout phenom of the past three seasons — is being tabbed as a virtual can’t-miss prospect. So what.

So was Andrew Luck with Indianapolis in 2012. He retired before the 2019 season without having reached a single Super Bowl.

Ditto, amid lesser expectations, with Robert Griffin III in Washington in 2012, Jameis Winston with Tampa Bay in 2015, Goff with the Rams in 2016 (who traded up to nab him), Carson Wentz with Philadelphia, also in 2016 (who traded up twice to nab him), Kyler Murray with Arizona two years ago and Joe Burrow with Cincinnati last year.

None of them has won a Super Bowl.

The draft is even more of a crapshoot than you may have realized. Even with top quarterbacks. Even with quarterbacks drafted No. 1 overall.

So, in conclusion, if you were GM of the Jaguars, would it be smarter to (a) exercise your No. 1 overall NFL Draft pick in April on “can’tmiss” Lawrence or (b), in extrapolating the past 15 years of draft data, bundle that top pick with a couple of others over 2021-22 to at least try to outbid everybody else for Watson’s services?

Known vs. unknown. Pick door No. 2.