Tam sets optimistic timeline for lockdowns

OTTAWA • Canada's chief public health officer says results from COVID-19 vaccinations are so encouraging that she thinks the need for massive lockdowns could be over before the end of the summer.

“It will even (be) before September, I think, depending on a number of factors, such as vaccine uptake, ongoing monitoring of other variants, and how vaccine coverage is provided,” Dr. Theresa Tam said Tuesday at a news conference in Ottawa.

She said personal protective choices such as masks and limited in-person contacts could be with us longer, but those will depend on how well vaccines prevent not just serious illness and death, but also the spread of the novel coronavirus. Data on transmission is still being analyzed, Tam said.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson laid out a plan for restoring life in the United Kingdom Tuesday that predicted the worst of its lockdowns could be over by June 21. The U.K. is far ahead of Canada on vaccinations, aiming to have every adult receive their first dose by the end of July.

Canada's current goal is for that to happen by the end of September, with interim goals to vaccinate at least three million people by the end of March and more than 14 million people by the end of June.

Tam wouldn't give a specific date for when lockdowns will no longer be needed, but this is the closest Canadian officials have come to putting any kind of timeline on when widescale restrictions will end. Tam, however, did warn the Sars-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19 is tricky and prone to sudden turns.

“I'm sure we haven't seen the last of what it might deal us in terms of surprises,” she said.

Those surprises include the variants of the virus that are believed to be more contagious, and might not be as susceptible to all the vaccines approved.

COVID-19 cases continue to decrease countrywide, with an average of 2,908 new cases confirmed daily over the last week, down five per cent compared to a week earlier. The daily death toll fell almost 30 per cent to 54 deaths per day, while hospitalizations averaged 2,400 per day, down 11 per cent from a week earlier.

However, the number of cases tied to variants of concern is creeping up. In total, 780 B.1.1.7 variants, first identified in the U.K., have been confirmed. There have also been 39 cases of B.1.351, first identified in South Africa, and one of P.1, which emerged in Brazil.

Canada has stepped up its screening efforts against variants, said Tam. She said several provinces including Ontario, Nova Scotia, British Columbia and Alberta are now screening every positive case for the main virus mutation found in the three variants of concern.

More than 1.1 million Canadians have received a single dose at least, with more than 450,000 fully vaccinated.