Foreign interference expected in election

• The Communications Security Establishment says in a report released Friday that holding an election during the COVID-19 pandemic could increase the threat of foreign interference because of the need to move more parts of it online.

The CSE report comes only weeks before Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is expected to kick off a federal election, sending Canadians to the polls for the second time since 2019.

Such an election will almost certainly see more activities and processes moved online to prevent the spread of COVID-19. One area of concern identified by the CSE was around an expected increase in the number of Canadians who vote by mail, with the agency warning foreign actors could try to use that as a way to undercut confidence in the election results.

“We assess that it is very likely that false information connecting voting by mail to voter fraud will circulate in Canada in relation to the next federal election,” according to the report.

The CSE believes such “false narratives” will pale in comparison to the rampant allegations of voter fraud during last year's U.S. presidential election, perpetuated by Donald Trump.

And while the CSE believes most Canadians will experience some type of attempt to influence them, it says Canada “remains a lower-priority target for online foreign influence activity relative to some other countries.”

The fact Canada's federal elections remain paper-based is also held up as a major reason for confidence along with what CSE describes as Elections Canada's “robust” defences and several other measures adopted by the government in recent years.

“Threat actors may use cyber tools to target Canada's democratic process to change election outcomes, influence policy-makers' choice, impact governmental relationships with foreign and domestic partners, and impact Canada's reputation around the world,” the CSE said.

The CSE said a growing number of actors have the capacity to take action in the future “should they have the strategic intent.”