National Post (National Edition)
Jays' playoff dreams can still come true
The Toronto Blue Jays will begin the unofficial second half of yet another displaced season with yet another homestand in Buffalo, and it's officially time for the “it's early” crowd to take a seat.
At best it's been an uneven 87 games for the Jays, who clearly need to be better if they are to return to the post-season in the latest phase of their grandiose makeover.
So what will it take over the remaining 75 games for a 45-42 team to get to keep playing beyond the Oct. 3 season finale?
If you go with the premise that it's going to take 92 wins to secure an American League wildcard spot — which isn't even close to a stretch — manager Charlie Montoyo's team will need to go 4728 the rest of the way.
Is it doable? Canadian baseball fans from Georges River, N.S., to Victoria, B.C., are about to find out. But with the Vlad Guerrero Jr.-led offence and the prospect of George Springer being a huge contributor at the plate, of course it's possible.
To do so, however, the Jays will need to be more consistent and post a handful of lengthy win streaks. Some more reliable defence will help, but more critically, the bullpen will need some serious bolstering by the end of the month. Some starting pitching depth wouldn't hurt, either, which makes the off-field work as important as the on-field effort.
With the buzz around the Jays building following Guerrero's MVP performance at this week's All-Star game in Denver, the Jays will return to Buffalo for a sixgame homestand on Friday, starting with three against the Texas Rangers.
Heading into play Friday, the
Jays were third in the AL East, eight games behind division leading Boston and 4.5 games out of a wild-card spot.
The prognosis of 92 wins as a target certainly isn't random and makes some sense, given recent history in the AL. Tossing out the shortened 2020 season, the previous 10 campaigns have required a high of 97 victories to secure a wild-card to a low of 85.
In 2015, the most recent time the Jays made it to the playoffs following a full season, they finished with 89 wins. In 2019 it took 96 to snag a spot, one less than the previous year. In the past 10 years, it's taken 91 wins or more six times.
Baseball Reference takes a deeper analytical dive and gives the Jays a 39.9 per cent chance of making the playoffs, including a 4.1 per cent shot at winning the division.
The website's thorough projections portray a best-case finish of 94-68 and a worst-case scenario of 80-82. It's safe to say that somewhere in the middle won't cut it, as the precise mathematical predictions are for the Jays to go 42.132.9 the rest of the way to finish at 87.1-74.9.
The good news from the Baseball Reference calculations figure that the Jays chances have improved by 13.5 per cent over the past 30 days. The good news from inside the Jays clubhouse remains to be seen.
While baseball can be a game of streaks, it's difficult to envision Guerrero slowing down in any noticeable way, providing he remains healthy. It's also not a stretch to suggest that his talented offensive teammates will continue to feed off of his prowess. And once Springer kicks into all-star form, that part of the output will continue to take care of itself.
Pitching — and most specifically the bullpen woes — are another story, as has been obvious through too many collapses and too much frustration to get to this point. How the front office addresses that in the short term will factor into any projections.
Meanwhile, the next two weeks are critical for the Jays' front office on a couple of fronts.
With the All-Star game and the draft in the rear-view mirror, the next order of league business is the July 30 trade deadline. General manager Ross Atkins has been active in June and July, adding a couple of bullpen pieces, but it's become clear that more will be needed.
Expect Atkins and his lieutenants Joe Sheehan and Mike Murov to remain active over the next couple of weeks. The narrative from the front office has been consistent since last off-season, with Atkins maintaining the team would be aggressive in the two immediate opportunities to improve — this trade deadline and next winter.
An important order of business, about where they'll be playing their home games, was cleared up Friday. The Blue Jays learned they will be making a July 30 return to Rogers Centre, with the federal government granting a special exemption to make that happen.
Next up, the target would shift to Aug. 20, which would give the Jays a true home-field advantage for the first time in almost two years.
How that will factor into the post-season pursuit is impossible to handicap, but it would certainly add to the buzz of meaningful September baseball.
The Jays need to start moving upward soon to make that happen. But for the first full season since 2015, the possibility exists.