Analysts chop Shopify targets

Analysts have pushed their price targets on Shopify Inc. to the lowest level since July after a swift and brutal correction in richly valued technology stocks.

The Canadian e-commerce firm has plunged 37 per cent and lost more than US$75 billion in market value since Nov. 19 amid a broader tech sell-off, ending its run as the country's most valuable public company.

Analysts from Deutsche Bank, Credit Suisse and Roth Capital Partners have cut their targets this week, citing lower online sales trends as more shoppers head back to physical stores.

Roth analyst Darren Aftahi expects Shopify's fourth-quarter results to be “marginally better” than the firm's estimates, based on a survey of merchants using its platform. Yet Aftahi still chopped his price target to US$1,400 from US$1,650.

“We continue to view Shopify as one of the leaders in e-commerce, but with the likelihood of COVID trends beginning to dissipate, including those mentioned by Shopify's management team, we have begun to see multiples compress, even more so from `stay-at-home' beneficiaries,” the analyst said in a note to clients. He maintained a buy rating.

Deutsche Bank's Bhavin Shah slashed his estimate to US$1,400 from US$1,650, citing headwinds of slower consumer spending and increased e-commerce competition. Shah also said lacklustre performance by the company's fulfilment network, meant to rival Amazon.com's, presents a risk to the Canadian e-commerce company's performance.

Still, “we expect Shopify will report a solid end to CY21 as the company continues to benefit from new merchant growth and the shift to online commerce,” Shah wrote in a note. He maintained a hold rating.

Shopify's revenue is expected to come in at US$4.57 billion for the year that ended on Dec. 31, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg — up 56 per cent from the year before. That growth rate is expected to slow to 32 per cent in 2022.

Shopify fell 5,74 per cent to close at US$1,025,21 in New York. It's now the third-largest Canadian public company by market value, behind two banks.