National Post (National Edition)
Ontario Liberals, NDP rule out anti-Ford coalition
Prefer kind of alliance brokered by Singh, PM
Ontario's New Democrats and Liberals are both ruling out the possibility of trying to form a coalition that would attempt to form government should Doug Ford's incumbent Progressive Conservatives win a minority of seats in the coming provincial election.
With the premier expected to call an election next week, the NDP and Liberals both say they are not interested in forming an alliance similar to the “supply-and-confidence” agreement brokered last month between Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh.
That deal saw the federal NDP agree to provide Trudeau's minority government with guaranteed support, allowing him to rule as if he had a majority.
In 2008, the federal Liberals, NDP and Bloc Québécois also attempted to form a coalition of opposition parties shortly after losing the federal election to the Conservatives, although that plan fell apart.
When asked if the two provincial parties might plan to try and form a ruling coalition should they have enough seats to do so, an Ontario NDP official simply responded “No.”
The NDP spokesperson said in an emailed statement that the party was focusing on beating Ford on its own and did not need the Liberals. “We're as few as 10 seats away from forming government, and are going into the election with 40 seats,” the statement said. “Steven Del Duca's Liberals have just seven seats. They can't win this election.”
An Ontario Liberal party spokesperson said they also have no interest in taking their relationship with the NDP to the next level. “Ontario voters know that you vote Liberal to get rid of Conservatives.”
While the Ontario election isn't expected to be called until next week, the campaign unofficially kicked off Thursday with the release of the 2022 provincial budget, followed by an adjournment of the Legislature until after the June 2 election deadline. That means the current legislature won't get a chance to debate or even vote on the budget, with the Tories instead using the budget as a platform pitched to voters.
Most polls currently suggest Ontarians are prepared re-elect the PCs, with the Liberals appearing to lead the NDP in a tight battle for second place.
Eric Merkley, assistant professor of political science at the University of Toronto, said it isn't surprising there's little appetite right now for any talk of a governing partnership.
“There's still some uncertainty, but it does look like the Liberals have an edge over the NDP right now in the polling, but things can change in elections,” he said.
“It wouldn't be surprising if there's some sort of campaign dynamic that moves progressive voters back into the NDP camp and away from the Liberals.”
Only two polls this year predicted PC losses, and
WE'RE AS FEW
AS 10 SEATS AWAY FROM
FORMING GOVERNMENT.
both were reported in January: Innovative Research Group's Jan. 11 survey suggested a razor-thin single-percentage-point Liberal victory over the PCs, while a Jan. 12 Angus Reid Institute poll had the NDP dethroning the Tories with a three-point advantage.
A Postmedia/Leger poll released earlier this month suggested inflation and the rising cost of living are top of mind with voters, with the COVID-19 pandemic ranking third.
That poll had 39 per cent of decided voters intending to vote PC, with 25 per cent supporting the Liberals, and 24 per cent for the NDP.
Among the biggest handicaps for the Liberals, Merkley said, is a lack of name recognition for Steven Del Duca, a 10-year MPP, former cabinet minister and Ontario Liberal leader since March 2020.
An April 19 Abacus poll reported nearly 60 per cent of respondents saying they don't know very much about the Liberal leader, compared to 39 per cent for NDP leader Andrea Horwath and 15 per cent for PC leader Doug Ford.
Hampering the NDP's chances are problems frustratingly common to longtime New Democrats.
“The NDP has normally been the third party in Ontario politics, they have this problem federally,” Merkley said.
“It's tough breaking through. There's just a lot more partisan Liberals that you have to get on board in order to compete one on one with the PCs.”