West must keep up support for Ukraine

If any country understands the cost of living with dictators and autocrats, it's Poland.

For centuries it was treated as a prize bauble for ambitious despots, invaded, partitioned or bartered around like a Monopoly card in geopolitical deals in which it had no say. It's been invaded by Sweden, France, Germany and Austria. For a century in the 1800s it ceased to exist on the map of Europe. The Second World War formally began when Hitler sent his forces across its border in 1939, after negotiating a secret agreement with Josef Stalin to split the territorial proceeds.

It can therefore be assumed that today's Poles fully understand the horror represented by Russian President Vladimir Putin's war on Ukraine. As Ukraine's biggest and most populous neighbour outside Russia itself, it has acted as a vital cog in the West's efforts to aid Ukraine's resistance, acting as a refuge for hundreds of thousands of displaced Ukrainians, as a centre for supplying and supporting Kyiv's military and as a moral breakwall to the heinous aggression of Putin's forces.

Moscow gave recognition to its importance Wednesday, when it cut supplies of natural gas to Poland and Bulgaria in retaliation for their refusal to pay in Russian rubles as demanded by Putin. The Russian leader issued the dictate as a way to support the currency and sidestep western sanctions. Russia's position as the dominant supplier of fuel to Europe helped finance its brutal and unprovoked invasion.

But if Putin thought blackmail would cow either country into submission, he badly miscalculated once again. Poland has extensive reserves of gas on hand, while a new pipeline connecting it to Norway is expected to be operational by the end of the year, supplying about half its annual needs. Underlining its defiance, Warsaw this week confirmed it's been sending Soviet-designed T-72 tanks to Ukraine to be used against Russian forces.

It's an admirable display by a courageous country, and raises anew the question of just what Putin thinks he is likely to gain by his treacherous and illjudged assault on an independent, democratic country. It has been widely conjectured that the Russian leader's contempt for western values led him to grossly underestimate the resilience of their adherents. Experts say he saw western powers and the NATO alliance as weak and divided, and expected them to cower before his forces. Their leaders might shake their fists and loudly pronounce their outrage, but were unlikely to act in a united and decisive way.

He has been proven badly wrong in that regard. If the Ukraine war has succeeded in anything, it has been in bringing democratic powers together in a new and determined show of unity that had been sadly absent before Putin roused them into action. NATO, which seemed in danger of unravelling during the years of the Trump administration, has been dramatically invigorated by Putin's reminder of the very dangers that inspired its creation in the first place. Far from frightening the alliance into reducing its presence on Russia's borders, Moscow's assault has greatly increased the determination of European countries to seek safety in NATO's shared defences. Finland and Sweden, neither of which were members, say they may decide together to join its ranks, despite threats from Moscow to position nuclear weapons along their borders in retaliation.

Nuclear threats should always be taken seriously, no matter how unfathomable, especially when the button is controlled by a worried despot who finds himself increasingly cornered. That the West is showing enough resolve to continue escalating its support for Ukraine shows the depth of its determination. Though he has received little domestic credit for it, U.S. President Joe Biden has been forceful and unrelenting in his support for Kyiv, sending billions of dollars in weaponry while sharing vital intelligence that has greatly aided Ukraine's outmanned forces in holding off Putin's much larger army. Without pressure from Washington it's highly doubtful Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's ever-apprehensive government could have been induced into an uncharacteristic willingness to venture beyond empty rhetoric in its response to the crisis, going so far as to send heavy weapons and armoured vehicles. The vehicle shipment, tellingly enough, was first announced by the U.S. defence secretary after a meeting in Germany.

Given all this, it must be asked what Putin imagines he still has to gain. At this point it is unimaginable that western powers will suddenly abandon their efforts. From Russia's perspective, the best it can hope for is control over a crescent of eastern Ukraine that has been bombed into ruin and drained of population. The rest of the country is not about to capitulate or abandon democracy; its government is not about to flee. If they hang on, Russian occupiers can expect to find a population with a deep and visceral hatred of their presence.

That Putin miscalculated is obvious. That he has little enough to gain appears evident. Unfortunately, he seems unlikely to acknowledge his mistake and end the senseless violence. The coming few weeks will be critical as Russia steps up its desperate search for some semblance of victory by escalating its assault. It's vital the democratic world respond in kind, continuing the flow of money, weapons and intelligence while broadening the financial pressures on Putin and his cronies. Poland understands that; we should, too.

IT MUST BE ASKED WHAT PUTIN IMAGINES HE STILL HAS TO GAIN.