Ontario politicians want to buy your vote

Four years ago, Doug Ford offered Ontarians $1 beers if they installed his Progressive Conservatives in government. And he delivered, though only briefly: The cheapest six-pack in Upper Canada now costs a shocking $9.30. This time around, the swag in the PC loot bag comes with many trailing zeros, and many goodies are transportation-themed: $1.1 billion to scrap licence-plate renewal fees; $645 million to cut the gasoline tax; $6 billion to build a new highway around Brampton. The government recently axed tolls on two GTA highways.

No surprise there. Ford is a suburban populist. His brand of politics is not complicated. And until Monday, the casual, inattentive or hopelessly Pollyannaish observer of Ontario politics might have expected the opposition parties to pitch something more cerebral. Liberal leader Steven Del Duca, for example, bravely argues against the new highway using relatively fancy (though correct) logic: Unless you price road usage, new highways almost inevitably just fill up with more cars until they become just as unbearable as the highways they were supposed to relieve

“With the Ford Conservatives, Ontario gets billions wasted on one highway that won't be completed for a decade and will not make a difference on commute times,” Del Duca said at a big Monday announcement. “With our Ontario Liberal plan, people will get immediate relief for their commute and in their wallet.”

As it turned out, though, the announcement was even sillier — and far more expensive — than Ford's buck-a-beer: “A buck-a-ride, provincewide.” No joke, Del Duca is promising that every single trip on municipally or provincially run public transit will cost $1, regardless of time consumed or distance travelled.

Headed downtown to a Blue Jays game in Toronto, or to Kanata to see the Ottawa Senators? That'll be a buck, instead of roughly three bucks. Taking GO transit from Niagara Falls to Peterborough, which takes five hours? That'll be a buck instead of 37 bucks. Taking Ontario Northland from Ottawa to Dryden — 1,800 kilometres in just over 33 hours? That'll be a buck instead of 274. It's bewildering. Setting aside extreme examples, a very typical commuter from Ajax to downtown Toronto — roughly 50 minutes by train — is being offered an 88-per-cent discount! And Del Duca says he'll just let that discount expire on New Year's Day 2024. Good luck with that.

If Ford had proposed buck-aride, which he easily might have, the Liberals would object on any number of grounds. They would observe that the estimated cost, a projected $1.1 billion in 2023, doesn't look like nearly enough. The TTC, GO transit and Ontario Northland combined would have needed more than that to make up for lost revenues in 2019, based on their annual reports. They would accuse Ford — again — of sticking his nose into municipal affairs where it doesn't belong. What if the TTC thinks it can't handle the induced ridership of $1 fares? What if OC Transpo thinks it's a bonkers idea across the board?

To that extent, it's possible to imagine Premier Del Duca actually following through. (It's much more possible to imagine him not, however.) Much as he might deplore Ford's interventions in city affairs, he was transport minister when then premier Kathleen Wynne reneged on a deal with Toronto Mayor John Tory to allow the city to toll the Don Valley Parkway and Gardiner Expressway. He was caught red-handed trying to place a GO Train stop in his own riding, against expert staff advice. He was perfectly happy to announce new and widened highways when he was in government. This is who he is. This is who the Ontario Liberals are.

Alas, there are no clean hands on the transit file at Queen's Park. Ford has committed to restoring Ontario Northland's passenger rail service between Toronto and North Bay, Timmins and perhaps as far as Cochrane. The Liberals terminated that service in 2012 in a fit of fiscal sanity, amidst a reported per-passenger subsidy of $400.

There is now an “updated initial business case” for resuming service. It should be titled “run away while you still can.” For a total cost outlay of $542 to $671 million, depending on various options, the document predicts a net loss on investment of between $470 and $490 million.

The train would be much slower than driving, and no faster even than the Ontario Northland buses that have since filled in for the rail service. Unsurprisingly, then, the business case predicts far more people would opt for the company's buses along every stretch of the route. There are considerably more bus routes in Northern Ontario now, servicing considerably more communities and more often, than there were when the Northland was running. They represent a much better use of however much subsidy is on offer. But never mind: Southern Ontario gets trains, and so must Northern Ontario.

Oh, and another fun little detail: Having spent weeks and months vowing not to prop up a minority PC government, the Liberals and New Democrats are now pooh-poohing, if not flatly ruling out, some kind of postelection co-operation with each other. It's something many of their less nakedly partisan supporters would absolutely love to see. And it completely gives the game away: It's pretty much all for show. If Ford were as bad as Del Duca or NDP leader Andrea Horwath say he is every day, their parties would have merged at some point over the past four years to vanquish this historic menace.

Depressing as it is, however, it's at least a clear proposition: Ontario politicians want to buy your vote. You might as well drive the hardest bargain you can.