Liberals, NDP are out of touch leftists

Ontario Premier Doug Ford's re-election bid looks promising in the early going of the campaign.

Mainstreet Research's April 27 poll had the PCs in the lead with 38.1 per cent, followed by Steven Del Duca's Liberals at 30.4 per cent and Andrea Horwath's NDP at 18.1 per cent. That lead increased on May 5, with Mainstreet showing the PCs at 37 per cent, Liberals at 27 per cent and NDP at 25 per cent.

Ipsos put the PCs at 39 per cent, followed by the Liberals (26 per cent) and NDP (25 per cent) on May 1. (Although the newest Ipsos poll has the PCs ahead by a smaller margin over the Liberals by 36 to 29 per cent, followed by the NDP at 25 per cent, it remains a comfortable lead.) Nanos' May 2 survey showed the PCs in the lead with 36.9 per cent, with the Liberals (30.4 per cent) and NDP (23.7 per cent) trailing behind.

Hence, Ford is in a good position to earn a second straight majority government. It's not a slam dunk by any means, however. Of these three recent polls, two of them show a single digit lead. Things can easily turn on the thin edge of the wedge during an election campaign. He and his team can't rest on their laurels.

The key to Ford's re-election is twofold: strong leadership and political direction.

A majority of Ontarians seem quite content with Ford's leadership. Abacus Data's April 21 poll showed that 10 per cent believe he's been “excellent” during his four years in charge of the Pink Palace. Meanwhile, 26 per cent said his leadership has been “good” and 25 per cent felt it was “acceptable.” That's a total of 61 per cent of potential voters on the plus side. Considering all the hoops and hurdles he's faced during the coronavirus pandemic, this is a solid result.

Indeed, confidence in Ford's leadership increased during COVID-19. He worked hand-in-hand with his provincial counterparts, and established good working relationships with Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland. He also made sure the medical community played an important role in keeping Ontarians safe and healthy.

Was it a model of perfection? No. Ford made mistakes when it came to temporarily extending police powers, keeping playgrounds closed and lastminute announcements involving Ontario schools and in-person learning. Then again, every provincial premier, as well as the prime minister, experienced bobbles and stumbles along the way. The same goes for politicians and leaders around the world.

There's no political playbook or economic blueprint that provides an ironclad strategy for governments during a global pandemic. You're often flying blind, and you hope you can see just enough to head in the right direction. Naturally, this didn't prevent Liberals, New Democrats, Greens and others from smugly pounding their chests and asserting they could have done better. Since their so-called solutions were always bloody expensive, chock full of holes and usually ranged from timid responses to ultra-restrictive lockdown measures.

This brings us to Ford's political direction, which could turn out to be the biggest weapon in his arsenal before the June 2 vote.

Ontario's economic forecast looks positive. The recent provincial budget projected that real GDP would increase by 3.7 per cent in 2022, and 3.1 per cent in 2023. Growth would moderate to two per cent in 2024, followed by 1.9 per cent in 2025. While deficits are touted for the next few years, largely due to massive public spending during COVID-19, the current projection is a budgetary surplus for 202728. That's two years ahead of schedule.

That's why Ford's recent budget-cum-election plan could work to his political advantage. Most Conservatives could have lived without $198 billion in additional provincial spending, which was rather excessive. At the same time, it shone a light on Ford as the only provincial leader truly looking at the big political picture with a focus on economic growth for the future. While it remains to be seen whether some or all of this election strategy to build Ontario will ever be re-tabled, the left-leaning opposition parties could only sit there and cry foul.

Ford already has plenty of ways to critique his political opponents, too.

Del Duca, for instance, said he would ban handguns within a year of taking office. Not only was this a foolish announcement, it will surely turn off Liberals living in rural areas (and there are some) who support gun ownership. The Liberals also suggested spending measures that would go through the roof, including $1 transit fares, extending $10 a day childcare to school-aged children, full payment for the last six months of parental leave and so forth. As for Horwath and the NDP, they proposed a multi-billion dollar spending spree to bring in public pharmacare, build social housing, and hire 30,000 new nurses and 20,000 new teachers and education workers.

Ford's populist credentials and conservative principles can help him here. All he needs to do is depict the spendthrift Liberals and NDP as out-of-touch leftists who always find ways to waste the taxpayers' hardearned money and push the province closer to the poorhouse. They've done it before, they'll do it again — and is that the type of leadership Ontarians want?

No wonder Ford was upbeat and confident when he knocked on Lt.- Gov. Elizabeth Dowdeswell's door on Tuesday. You certainly can't blame him.

CONFIDENCE IN FORD'S LEADERSHIP INCREASED DURING COVID.

FORD ALREADY HAS PLENTY OF WAYS TO CRITIQUE HIS POLITICAL OPPONENTS, TOO. — TAUBE