As a recession looms, the stimulus cupboard is bare

Many economists are predicting a recession in Canada, the U.S. and globally. Unfortunately, the Liberal government significantly weakened its ability to respond by ignoring the advice of John Maynard Keynes, the economist whom liberals used to follow: Save during periods of growth so you can stimulate the economy during a downturn. Instead, finance ministers Morneau and Freeland doubled the federal debt in six years. According to the Fraser Institute, combined federal and provincial net debt will reach $2.1 trillion in 2022-23, roughly the size of the economy.

Granted, the federal government had to confront a global pandemic. But it spent more than 14 G20 countries on COVID-19 during 2020 and it wasted a minimum of $27.4 billion in “suspicious” benefit payments, according to Auditor General Karen Hogan. Tens of billions more were sent to people who did not need the money, thereby exacerbating inflationary pressure created by supply chain shortages.

Our economic problems go beyond profligate spending, however. Canada is blessed with immense natural resources, including oil and gas, minerals, forestry and fisheries, and it borders on the largest economy in the world. In spite of these enormous advantages, the OECD projects that we will be dead last in economic growth among wealthy countries over the next 40 years, with real growth at a paltry 0.7 to 0.8 per cent. The main problem is the relative inability to improve worker productivity due to inadequate capital investments and innovation. Shameful mediocrity should generate a determination to do much better. Instead, the prime minister obsesses over issues that accelerate the economic decline and rejects opportunities for improvement.

His green policies intrude on business and personal agency and prosperity in ways ranging from picayune (straws) to substantive (carbon taxes, automobile bans, fertilizer reductions, blocked resource projects and emission caps that infringe on provincial jurisdiction). Trudeau's deceptively labelled “just transition” would involve the wholly unjust destruction of a key industry, with disruption far beyond energy, but without any real plan to re-train or compensate workers. According to notes prepared for the minister of natural resources, the dystopian transition could impact up to 13.5 per cent of Canada's workforce.

There are limits to inflationary deficit spending — although the government doesn't seem to have received that memo yet. Our focus needs to be on growth and job creation, which we could achieve by lowering corporate and personal taxes, cutting red tape and enabling the production and sale of Canada's vast proven oil and gas reserves to Asia and Europe — which could reduce net global emissions by replacing higher-emitting coal. Other energy-rich countries are maximizing their production, while those not so fortunate, i.e., most of the world, are using every available source of power, especially coal, regardless of its carbon footprint.

The prime minister seems convinced he must save the planet from apocalyptic global warming. The flaw in his certainty is that the climate models that supposedly justify it repeatedly project temperatures significantly higher than actually occur. Undeterred, the modellers continue to project and the alarmists continue to rely on the same failed models.

Global temperatures have increased by 1.2 degrees since 1850, which marked the end of the Little Ice Age. If the temperature had not increased we would still be in an ice age, which would not be a good thing, especially for Canada. Even in our warmer world, 4.5 million people die from the cold each year compared to fewer than 600,000 from the heat. It is cooler now than during the Medieval Warm Period (950-1250 AD). One recent study suggests that during the 500-year Roman Warm Period (1-500 AD) Mediterranean temperatures were two degrees C warmer than now, even though anthropogenic emissions from industrialization clearly were not a thing. We are endlessly warned that two degrees higher than pre-industrial levels threatens human life, yet the Romans managed to survive without air conditioning, even though it was 3.2 degrees higher than now (two degrees warmer than now, which is 1.2 degrees warmer than 1850). But hey, why bother with history, which is boring and does not sufficiently terrify our children.

True believers will contemptuously decry all this. However, two facts are undeniable.

First, at 1.5 per cent of world emissions, Canada cannot on its own alter the global temperature. Our effort might be justifiable if other countries were doing their part, rather than just pretending. But developing countries, representing 63 per cent of global emissions, are unwilling or unable to help, including China at 29 per cent, whose coal output increased nine per cent over 2021, as it explicitly prioritizes energy security. Europe is deep in its own energy crisis and total GHG emissions reached record highs in 2021. So our sacrifices represent pious but empty gestures that do not even have a persuasive value.

Second, the green policies necessary to get Canada to net zero by 2050 will: cost a staggering $2 trillion, undermine national unity and weaken our role in the world. The cost to the world will be $275 trillion, which clearly isn't going to happen.

Canadians are awakening to the terrible harm the government's destructive climate initiatives inflict on their livelihoods and freedom, without achieving anything meaningful for the environment. As the financial burden intensifies and our economic performance falters, Canadians should reject the blandishments and fear-mongering of a vainglorious prime minister. That cannot happen too soon.