Predicting oil prices in 2013
Baclays Capital expects non-OPEC production to rise by 390,000 barrels per day in 2013, with almost all the growth originating from North America. However, other non-OPEC countries will see a drop in their supply, which would increase demand for OPEC oil in the New Year. “This places our call on OPEC crude and inventories calculation at 31.5 million bpd, higher by 0.4 million bpd,” wrote Miswin Mahesh, an analyst at Barclays Capital. “While we are likely to see similar themes on market balances, concerns over macroeconomic discontinuities are expected to play a role next year.” The bank expects West Texas Intermeditate to average US$115 in 2013, US$10 lower than its Brent index benchmark. The BarCap outlook is above consensus. A Reuters monthly survey of 26 analysts forecast Brent crude oil will average US$108 per barrel in 2013, down from an average of US$111.71 so far this year. Meanwhile, Julian Jessop, head of commodities research at Capital Economics, has emerged as one of the most bearish analysts in the industry, expecting US$85 for Brent crude. “A fading of Middle East risks alone could therefore be enough to knock between $10 and $20 off the price of a barrel of Brent,” Mr. Jessop said.
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