EVS an infant technology
Vehicles take back seat at Detroit Auto Show
• At the 2010 North American International Auto Show, electric and hybrid vehicles grabbed the headlines. Fast-forward three years, and electric vehicles played a minor role at the Detroit event that saw performance and luxury vehicles steal the spotlight.
“The fact of the matter is electric is an infant technology that probably won’t have any significant, true momentum in our industry for at least another decade and more likely two,” observed Dennis DesRosiers, industry analyst.
DesRosiers’s view is reflected in a recent KPMG survey of 200 senior automotive executives around the globe that found electric vehicles won’t make up more than 15 per cent of worldwide sales before 2025.
It also indicated that automakers plan to spend most of their research and development dollars on improving the internal combustion engine.
“The economics of EVs are not there,” said Gary Silberg, national automotive industry leader for KPMG LLP. “They’re very expensive, and for the most part, the consumer has so many other choices. It’s difficult for them to choose an EV when they could buy a hybrid or gasoline engine vehicle for less money and better performance.”
The Chevy Volt compact sedan, for example, starts at $42,000 (minus the $8,231 Ontario government rebate) while a fully loaded, top-of-the line Toyota Corolla sells for about $25,000.
Electric vehicle sales are rising, but not enough to distract automakers from the internal combustion engine. In 2011, U.S. car buyers took home about 17,500 plug-in electric cars. Last year, that number rose to 53,000 electric vehicles.
“There’s no doubt we continue to get more miles per gallon,” said Dave Buckingham, chief operating officer at Chrysler Canada. “When you look at the Jeep Grand Cherokee we just launched with the 3.6-litre Pentastar engine, that now gets 36 miles per gallon because it’s mated to an eight-speed transmission.”
EVs will continue to be part of Ford Motor Company’s product portfolio, though its focus remains on improving traditional powertrains, said Richard Truett, powertrain communications manager.
“(The internal combustion engine) is getting more and more efficient, but there’s not one answer for every consumer,” said Truett. “Our strategy is to make all these different types of powertrains and make them so whatever powertrain you want, you can choose for yourself.”
However, “for the foreseeable future the gasoline engine will continue to be the engine of choice,” he said. Ford’s “mission is to reduce the size of the engine” without sacrificing performance.
“When the gasoline engine improves, it makes it harder for the electrified vehicles to compete,” added Truett. “But electric technology is moving very quickly, and there could be a breakthrough tomorrow that we have a battery that delivers 500 miles of range.”
Reid Bigland, Chrysler Canada CEO and head of U.S. sales, said carmakers must stay in the EV segment to meet increasingly stringent fueleconomy standards. “There needs to be an element of electrification in all OEMs’ product plan.
“Call it a regulatory railroad, because there is no way to get there without electrification,” he said.
“In the compact-car world, 40 is the new 30,” said Bigland. “Ten years ago, 30 miles per gallon was OK on a compact car. Now you have to pretty much have a 40-mile-per-gallon offering on an internal combustion engine.”