Arthur: NHL playoff picture bleak in Alberta,
Five Canadian clubs in playoff hunt, while Flames flounder, Oilers struggle
TORONTO e are pretty much two-thirds of the way through the National Hockey League season now, even though it feels like it just started yesterday. I know, I know. They grow up so fast these days, after an unnecessarily long and painfully boring lockout.
Here in Canada, this means many of us are gearing up for the stretch drive, which if you are not in Alberta means watching the out-of-town scoreboard with great interest because it could impact your team’s run toward the playoffs. (And which if you are in Alberta means watching the out-of-town scoreboard with great interest because it means you don’t have to look at your own team.)
So, let’s take the temperature of the NHL in this country.
In Alberta, times are grim. The Edmonton Oilers are perpetually waiting for Godot and are getting booed at home despite being mere kilometres away from a real playoff chase, rather than hundreds of miles.
Patience seems nearly bottomless at the ownership level though, which probably doesn’t help. It’s been a long time since Denver Post writer Adrian Dater placed Edmonton third in his SI.com pre-season power rankings, which now seems like more of a time-travelling accident than anything.
But at least the Oilers are not Calgary, which has seen the bottom finally fall out
Wafter they nearly traded firstand third-round picks and paid US$2.5 million to Ryan O’Reilly before being forced to put him on waivers.
Jarome Iginla’s trade list is finally becoming something more than myth, with both Darren Dreger, of TSN, and Renaud Lavoie, of RDS, reporting the four teams Iginla would move to are Pittsburgh, Chicago, Boston and Los Angeles. Pittsburgh traded for Dallas veteran Brenden Morrow on Sunday, but the rest of the list still makes sense, which isn’t something you can say every day about anything involving the Calgary Flames.
The four teams have won the last four Stanley Cups, even if the Kings are the ones not assured of a playoff spot this season, mired as they are in the middle-class muck of the West.
But then, maybe Iginla is an advanced statistics aficionado, since the advanced stats — stuff like Corsi and Fenwick and McDonnell, the last of which I just made up this minute — show the Kings are a team that directs far more shots at their opponents than their opponents direct at them when the two teams are playing at even strength, which over the long haul is shown to correlate very strongly with winning hockey games.
I know. It sounds crazy, but it’s true.
Advanced stats say the Kings just need some goaltending, some puck luck and the winning will come. Advanced stats loved the Kings last year, too.
(Corsi includes blocked shots; Fenwick does not. McDonnell, again, is made up by me. People won’t accept advanced stats until they are more easily proven and they are super easy to understand, but it’s still amazing that Glenn Healey said on Hockey Night in Canada he does not consider something a scoring chance unless the shot hits the net. This is, frankly, philosophically incredible.)
Of course, if you believe in those advanced stats and are a fan of the Maple Leafs, then this entire season has basically been like watching Wile E. Coyote run off a cliff into the air, keep running and hoping he makes it across the canyon before he looks down.
The Leafs are outshot by a wide margin on a nearnightly basis and, thanks to some surprising goaltending and gritty play, have won 13 games in which they have been outshot, including Saturday night against the Bruins, in which they managed 13 shots and scored on three. Don’t look down, guys. That’s when gravity gets you.
Montreal, meanwhile, outshot Buffalo 39-18 on Saturday night and lost, which is the flip side of Toronto’s lucky lot. But the Canadiens are in the best shape in the country despite the fact they finished 15th in the East last season and have nobody in the top 40 in league scoring.
With depth, pluck and some pretty good goaltending, they are second in the East behind Pittsburgh, plus their coach speaks French this season, which is helping to keep everybody calm. Montreal has points in 18 of its last 20 games and hasn’t lost back-to-back contests in regulation yet. They’re gonna make it.
Ottawa, meanwhile, appears to be a very elaborate magic trick. They have lost their No. 1 centre (Jason Spezza, back), their No. 1 goalie (Craig Anderson, ankle), their No. 1 defenceman (Erik Karlsson, Achilles, who was on his way to the Norris Trophy) and their third-leading scorer last season (Milan Michalek, knee).
This means their leading scorer is Sergei Gonchar, who was born the year Nixon resigned, and their fourthleading scorer is Patrick Wiercioch, whose AHL career high was 20 points in 57 games in Binghamton.
Then there was that one game when coach Paul MacLean had a doppelganger sit behind him in the crowd. Ottawa appears to be magical, though magic tends to fail, given enough time.
Winnipeg, meanwhile, is a kite waiting to fall, since the Jets were tied for the secondworst goal differential in the Eastern Conference going into last night and are still leading their swill barrel of a division. For goodness sakes, their adoring fans actually booed during a 6-1 home loss to Washington on Friday, which, knowing Winnipeg fans, meant it probably sounded like thunder, right over your house.
And then there is Vancouver, where the Canucks are a mighty anxiety factory, despite sitting fourth in the West going into Sunday night’s game in Colorado.
Ryan Kesler is hurt, David Booth is hurt, Manny Malhotra had to be retired, Keith Ballard had to play a game at forward and their two goalies are waiting out the trade deadline and not playing quite so well (although Cory Schneider is on a nice threegame run now).
The Canucks were so close to a Stanley Cup two years ago. They were the class of this country. They may yet be again, but it feels like Vancouver is drifting.
Anyway, there is just more than a month to go and five Canadian teams have something to play for, which is a nationwide improvement.
Now, some hearts will probably be broken by the end of April, but just remember this: No matter how bad it gets, no matter how dark, no matter how wretched, you’re not in Alberta. Never forget it could always be worse.