Harper boxed in
Few real options in cabinet shuffle,
Only three people would know all the pieces of the coming cabinet shuffle, delayed from this week until next because of the train disaster at Lac-Mégantic.
Those three people would be Prime Minister Stephen Harper, his chief of staff, Ray Novak, and the clerk of the Privy Council, Wayne Wouters.
Harper would be calling the shots, Novak running the process and Wouters running the paper, including mandate letters to new ministers, through the Privy Council Office.
Cabinet shuffles are not a fun part of a PM’s job. First, his options are limited by the need for regional, linguistic, multicultural and gender balance. And for all the MPs thrilled to be promoted to the big table, many more are left disappointed on the backbench.
Ahead of the shuffle, Harper asked ministers not planning to run again in 2015 to step aside. Six cabinet members have indicated they would do so. And here’s where geography and gender balance come in when looking at their possible replacements.
For example, two Alberta ministers, Ted Menzies and Diane Ablonczy, said last week they wouldn’t be running again. That opens up two Alberta cabinet seats. Michelle Rempel, from Calgary, is considered a lock. And James Rajotte, from Edmonton, is long overdue for promotion. As chair of the House Finance Committee, he’s well liked on all sides of the House, and could easily step into Menzies’ role as junior minister of finance.
From Ontario, Marjory LeBreton has stepped down as government leader in the Senate, and Environment Minister Peter Kent has posted his willingness to return to the backbench and even to run again. That opens the door for Kellie Leitch and Chris Alexander.
From Manitoba, Vic Toews resigned as both public safety minister and MP this week, which means that Candice Bergen could move up as the second minister from that province.
And Keith Ashfield has stepped down as Fisheries minister, citing cancer treatment, which means that Rob Moore is likely to become the second New Brunswick minister. Again, geography and language figure in this, with a francophone from the north, Aboriginal Affairs Minister Bernard Valcourt, and an anglophone from the southern part of the province. That’s just the way it is in New Brunswick.
And finally there’s Quebec, where the Conservatives have only five MPs, four of whom are already in cabinet. If Harper had been planning on moving Transport Minister Denis Lebel to another portfolio, he’s probably not anymore. After LacMégantic, Lebel needs to stay at his present post, which in the circumstances must be filled by a francophone. Although as it happens, LacMégantic is in the riding of Industry Minister Christian Paradis, so it’s conceivable he and Lebel could simply trade portfolios.
A shuffle alone will not give the Conservatives a lift, but it can give them a new look. And by moving up younger MPs such as Rempel, Leitch and Alexander, it will be the first signal of generational change. Some senior ministers, such as James Moore at Heritage and John Baird at Foreign Affairs, belong to that same younger cohort.
A cabinet youth movement is one thing, but there are two senior ministers, Jim Flaherty in Finance and Peter MacKay at Defence, who have given no indication they wish to move. Nor has Harper given any sign he wishes to move them.
Flaherty, for one, is the ranking finance minister in the G7, G8 and G20. And Canada has a good story on managing the economy through the recession to the present recovery. Harper is fond of referring to Flaherty having been named best finance minister in the world back in 2009. And in any event, whom would he choose to replace him? Tony Clement, from Treasury Board, certainly knows the economic files. Or Flaherty and Baird might swap roles, though again neither is looking for a change.
As for MacKay, he’s had his share of challenges on the procurement side of Defence, but he also loves the job. He also represents the Progressive Conservative side of the House, and was co-author with Harper of the merger that reunited the right in 2003. He’s also the senior minister from the Atlantic region. On a personal level, Harper is quite fond of MacKay. And again, where would the PM move him?
On the gender question, there are two women who have proven themselves in the first session of this Parliament, Public Works Minster Rona Ambrose and Labour Minister Lisa Raitt. Both of them were roughed up in earlier portfolios, Ambrose at Environment and Raitt at Natural Resources. But they’ve grown into their present roles and may be ready for larger ones.
Sometimes, the key to a minister’s influence isn’t so much in their line department as in their cabinet committees. LeBreton, for example, was a force to be reckoned with in this government because she sat on both priorities and planning, and operations. And sat beside the prime minister.
Sometimes, proximity is power.