‘Looks like a done deal’
Poll shows Tory challenger has 14-point lead
A new poll suggests the McGuinty stranglehold on Ottawa South could be in jeopardy.
The provincial riding — which Dalton McGuinty and his late father, Dalton McGuinty Sr., held for a combined 26 years — may soon be painted Tory blue, as Progressive Conservative challenger Matt Young has a commanding, 14-point lead over his Liberal opponent John Fraser, according to the results of an interactive voice response telephone survey conducted by Forum Research.
The poll of 589 adult residents who are leaning or decided found 48 per cent would vote for Young, compared to 34 per cent for Fraser.
New Democrat Bronwyn Funiciello is sitting at 12 per cent, followed by Green party candidate Taylor Howarth at five per cent.
The poll was conducted on July 24 and the results are considered accurate to plus or minus four per cent, 19 times out of 20.
Pollster Lorne Bozinoff said the race looks encouraging for the Tories and devastating for the minority Liberals.
“As much as there’s no done deal in politics, this looks like a done deal,” he said.
“This would take a miracle to change this around at this point.”
The latest numbers are in stark contrast to a poll Forum conducted on July 3, at which time the Liberals were slightly ahead of the Tories, 42 per cent to 38 per cent.
Upbeat in the face of adversity, Fraser said his campaign will go “full tilt” until Aug. 1, when voters in Ottawa and four other ridings head to the polls.
“You cannot allow yourself to be distracted by things. The focus is get to more doors, meet more people, tell them why you’re doing it and ask for their support.”
The PC candidate was similarly circumspect.
“I remember polls in Alberta and B.C. that suggested the underdog was in the lead out there too and it turned out badly for both those two underdogs,” Young said.
In recent provincial elections, polls had suggested governing parties were facing major upsets that failed to materialize on election night.
The Tories continued to hammer the Liberals on Friday over the gas plants scandal.
Young sent letters to Fraser and NDP candidate Bronwyn Funiciello, urging them to support his party’s demand that the Liberal party, not taxpayers, foot the bill to retrieve emails on recently uncovered backup tapes located as part of a committee investigation into the scandal.
“This was a political decision from the start to cancel the gas plants, a political decision to delete the emails. We shouldn’t be on the hook for this,” Young said.
He believes Fraser’s connection to McGuinty is a weakness.
“I think a lot of people want change and they don’t see Mr. Fraser as change,” Young said.
Funiciello shrugged off the poll results and noted that recent election night results haven’t reflected what polls suggested.
“We’ll talk to you at the victory party,” she said optimistically.
The polling firm also released the results of another poll earlier this week that showed Liberal support flagging provincewide.
“This is just a reflection of that trend,” Bozinoff said, adding Fraser’s close relationship with the former premier may not be helping him.
“When he left office he had a 21 per cent approval rating,” the pollster said of McGuinty.
That may be true, but history has shown that voters’ love for McGuinty runs deep.
First elected in 1990 — when he took over from his father — McGuinty gave the victory speech on six consecutive election nights, his share of the vote never dipping below 46 per cent.
His younger brother, David, has been the riding’s federal representative since 2004.
The former premier has kept a low profile since resigning his seat last month. He has not canvassed with Fraser, though two of his brothers and various nieces and nephews have been out pounding the pavement.
“He’s done his bit,” Fraser said of his former boss.
“If it weren’t for him, I wouldn’t be doing what I’m doing right now and that, to me, is more than enough.”
David McGuinty says his brother, Dalton, is on a pre-booked holiday out-of-province and is also busy preparing for a family wedding in Prince Edward Island (Dalton’s oldest son is marrying the younger sister of P.E.I. Premier Robert Ghiz).
The former premier is also preparing to move to Massachusetts in the fall for a fellowship at Harvard University’s prestigious Weatherhead Centre for International Affairs.
He, too, shrugged off the Forum poll, saying Liberals in Ottawa South habitually campaign as though they are 25 points behind.
“People are much, much more thoughtful than a poll might indicate,” McGuinty said.
Elsewhere in Ontario, Forum polls suggest the PCs are also leading in the Etobicoke-Lakeshore riding, previously held by the Liberals, while the Liberals have the lead in Scarborough-Guildwood.
Forum plans to release the results of polling for London and Windsor ridings on Saturday.
Bozinoff said the market research company conducted the poll for its own interest and not on behalf of any political party.