The inimitable Angela Merkel
Just how many Angela Merkels can there be? While there obviously is only one Chancellor Angela Merkel, how she is perceived by others, both within Germany and elsewhere, may differ quite markedly as Germans go to the polls on Sunday.
And how the German election ultimately turns out will have important implications not only for Germany’s 84 million people, but also for the 28 members of the European Union, NATO and the global trading community, including Canada, which is currently negotiating a free-trade agreement with the EU.
In a purely domestic sense, it’s not surprising many German voters have very different opinions on Angela Merkel’s record since she first became chancellor in 2005. She seeks to be chancellor for the third time following Sunday’s election, where she hopes her centreright Christian Democrats will win enough votes to form yet another coalition government.
Although Germany managed to weather the 2008 financial crisis better than most EU members, with German firms now increasing exports and profits, many ordinary Germans feel their own situation has not seen the same improvement.
While Germany’s national unemployment rate is now only 6.8 per cent, in some areas unemployment is as high as 13 per cent.
Many believe their personal living standards have actually stagnated despite Germany’s solid economic performance.
They blame labour reforms, called Agenda 2010, which included wage restraints, more flexible labour laws benefiting employers and significant cutbacks to unemployment benefits, for creating a situation where jobs were admittedly created, but at lower wage levels in certain sectors of the economy than before.
Analysts believe a growing gap between rich and poor and the demand for more “social justice” could be a key factor in determining the fortunes of political parties in certain higher unemployment electoral districts.
All of Germany’s main parties, including Merkel’s, are keenly aware of this growing malaise and have called for a number of measures to improve the lot of ordinary people, including minimum wages and larger pensions for vulnerable elderly members of society.
Critics say Merkel has shrewdly poached such policies from her centre-left rivals in the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the Greens, not to mention the Left Party comprised of many former Communists from the era of East Germany.
Surveys indicate Merkel is far more popular than her main rival, Peer Steinbruck of the Social Democrats, finance minister in her 200509 coalition with the SPD. However, if the Christian Democrats win the most seats Sept. 22, the chancellor reportedly would prefer to form another coalition with the Liberal Democrats, though their electoral prospects remain problematic.
In any event, because of her moderation, pragmatism and cautious approach to dealing with important issues and Germany’s economic recovery, Angela Merkel does enjoy considerable support within Germany, to the point where it’s not uncommon to hear her referred to as “Mutti,” Mum in English.
One poll now indicates the chancellor’s CDU Party may win 37 per cent of vote in the former East German region, a significant advance for the centre-right CDU.
However, her insistence that German support for providing billions in bailout assistance for EU states arising from the euro currency crisis was contingent on recipient countries implementing severe austerity measures and budget cuts following the near financial meltdown in EU states has unleashed massive violent demonstrations in countries like Greece.
Notwithstanding Angela Merkel’s negative image in Greece and other hard-pressed southern EU states like Italy and Spain, most Northern EU states generally respect her leadership role in demanding necessary EU austerity measures.
Recent comments of hers saying, ‘We don’t have to do everything in Brussels,’ supposedly encouraged (David) Cameron.
One prominent EU leader who apparently also does like her policies is British Prime Minister David Cameron. According to observers in Britain, Cameron is keen to see Angela Merkel return to power as he thinks she could be a critically important ally in his desire to see many of the EU’s current powers returned to the governments of EU states.
Recent comments of hers saying, “We don’t have to do everything in Brussels” supposedly encouraged Cameron that she might be more open to EU treaty revisions.
In this imagined scenario, Germany might downplay the policy of previous German governments to support greater political and economic integration within the European Union.
Such a critically important shift in German policy vis-à-vis the future of the European Union supposedly could make it possible for Cameron to win support for Britain staying in the EU when he is compelled to hold a national referendum on British membership in the EU which he promised.
While some EU leaders undoubtedly also share similar views on returning various powers to national governments, those who favour even greater political and economic integration within the EU obviously would resist such steps.
They would consider them regressive and undermining the EU’s potential to finally become a truly unified entity.
What happens to “Mum” on election day Sunday clearly will have important consequences going well beyond Germany’s borders.