MATTHEW FISHER
If he’s elected, Petro Poroshenko’s priority will be to try to strike an agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin that gets eastern Ukrainian separatists to lay down their arms.
“Chocolate King” Petro Poroshenko, the front-runner to become Ukraine’s next president, will almost certainly win Sunday’s election, replacing Viktor Yanukovych, who was ousted in a violent coup in February.
However, the question remains whether Poroshenko will become president on Sunday. To do that he has to get at least 50 per cent, plus one of the votes in the first ballot of the presidential race.
Or will the billionaire, who has been involved in Ukrainian politics for years, fall short of the magic figure, forcing this fractious, impoverished eastern European country to wait for a second ballot on June 15 in which he would face the runnerup from Sunday’s ballot?
If it takes two rounds to elect Poroshenko, this might give pro-Moscow separatists — already causing mayhem in the east of the country — three more weeks to create more panic and uncertainty.
In the strongest signal yet that Russia’s support for the separatists may be waning, President Vladimir Putin told a business forum in St. Petersburg on Thursday that he may recognize Ukraine’s new president.
“We are today working with the people in power and after the election we will work with the newly elected structure,” Putin said.
Russia wanted peace on its borders with Ukraine, Putin said, although western countries, including Canada and the U.S., have accused Moscow of having played a leading role in fomenting recent violence in eastern Ukraine.
Armed separatists who wish to be part of Russia have forced many election organizers to flee their posts in Donetsk and nearby communities in the east. As as a result, as much as 15 per cent of the Ukrainian electorate in that region may be prevented from voting.
Clashes between Ukrainian troops and separatists continued Friday after 14 Ukrainians were killed in an ambush near Donetsk on Thursday.
Poroshenko has the support of about 55 per cent of decided voters, according to several Ukrainian polls published this week. That puts him far ahead of his likely nearest rival, Yulia Tymoshenko, twice a former prime minister and a bitter rival of Yanukovych.
She has long been the West’s favourite Ukrainian politician but after serving several years in jail on corruption charges she is regarded by many voters as a divisive, faded glory out of touch with current realities.
Most of the other 19 candidates have almost no support and little media coverage, particularly when compared to a man now running to be mayor of Kyiv, who is fond of turning up in a Darth Vader outfit in Maidan Square, which was a frequent flashpoint during the long, bloody struggle between pro-western and pro-Moscow-leaning Ukrainians.
“I think Poroshenko will win on the first ballot. I certainly hope so,” said 20-year-old Ekaterina Perpeta, who is studying at university to become a journalist. “He is a diplomat and a successful businessmen who makes very good chocolate.
“If there are two ballots, it gives Russia and its friends more time to organize more provocations. Ukraine definitely does not need that,” she added.
While a high voter turnout is expected Sunday, not all Ukrainians are interested in the election.
“We don’t care who wins because we know they can all be bought for the same price,” said Sergei Dovgaluik, who runs a small investment business, referring to the successive Ukrainian governments that have been dogged by charges of colossal corruption.
“Whether the president is pro-western or pro-Russian, we still end up being dependent on others. Some think Russia is the better choice because they are our brothers.
“Others believe the West gives us the possibility of a truly free market and greater prosperity,” he said.
Poroshenko has played both sides of this coin. He has his own business interests in Russia, and some Ukrainians believe he alone could negotiate with Russia, which lost a close ally when Yanukovych was deposed.
But Poroshenko, who is one of the country’s richest and most influential business leaders, has come out strongly in favour of much closer ties with the European Union.
The Harper government has taken an intense interest in events in Ukraine. It was overjoyed when Yanukovych fled to Russia and was furious when Putin took his revenge by seizing the Crimean peninsula in late March and formally annexing it to Moscow.
The first couple hundred Canadian election observers, who are part of a force that may eventually number 500 if there is a second ballot, have begun fanning out across the country ahead of Sunday’s vote.
But most of them are steering well clear of violence-riddled areas near the Russian border where the fairness of the voting is likely to be especially contentious.
“Everything is calm, there is optimism and people are positive here,” said Peter Goldring, the Conservative MP for Edmonton East, who is in the southern city of Kherson, near the border with Crimea. “I think they are looking forward to the inauguration of a new president to start to pull things forward. People are really hoping this can get done in one ballot, but if it takes two rounds, it takes two rounds.”
Poroshenko made a similar appeal for a single round of voting to prevent further “destabilization,” with separatists attacking the “legitimacy” of the result.
Goldring has a special remit from the Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade to examine how difficult it is for ethnic minorities, such as several hundred-thousand Crimean Tatars, to vote in the Ukrainian elections.
Ukraine has been allowed to set up polling stations in embassies in scores of countries, but the Kremlin has forbidden those living in Crimea from voting in the Ukrainian elections, although almost all the residents there are still regarded by Kyiv as Ukrainian citizens. Those Crimeans who wish to vote for Ukraine’s next president have been obliged to make a costly trip to the mainland, Goldring said.
“There are serious impediments for those Crimeans including costs and potential problems at the border,” he said.
Poroshenko’s first priority, whenever he is elected president, will be to see if it is possible to strike an agreement with Putin that gets the separatists in the east of the country to lay down their arms.
At the same he must seek massive international assistance to prop up Ukraine’s feeble economy. Another looming problem is to pacify extreme right wing vigilantes who remain camped out in Kyiv’s Maidan Square three months after Yanukovych was toppled.
Implacable foes of many Ukrainians who live the east of the country, they have been demanding a big voice in how the new government is run.