Canada likely to see moderate job growth

Canada’s labour market will emerge from the shadow of the United States next week, at least temporarily. But the outlook for job creation here will remain cloudy at best.

Most analysts are forecasting another month of moderate hiring in June, with anywhere between 22,000 and 30,000 positions being created.

The latest employment tally from Statistics Canada, to be released Friday, will be one of two major data releases in the coming days.

Whatever the outcome of the Canadian job report, it will pale by comparison to the over-thetop gains — more than 280,000 in June — reported Thursday south of the border, a surprising improvement on payroll growth of 217,000 the previous month and strong enough to push the U.S. unemployment rate to a six-year low of 6.1 per cent.

Canada’s labour force survey, meanwhile, could remain unchanged at the previous month’s seven-per-cent jobless rate.

The other critical piece of Canada’s economic puzzle will come ahead of the job report. The Bank of Canada’s quarterly Business Outlook Survey on Monday will provide additional insight on sales, corporate investment plans and employment needs for the coming 12 months.

“Its basically those two things on the bookends of the week in Canada,” said Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets.

Most of the attention, of course, will be on Friday’s employment numbers — and the inevitable comparison with the U.S. labour report and the fireworks analogies that accompanied its release one day before the Independence Day celebrations.

“Canada has little to show for the improvement in the U.S. economy, especially in labour markets,” said David Madani, at Capital Economics. “Employment data for June (are) likely to reinforce the view that the (Canadian) economy is struggling to generate enough jobs.”

Hiring in this country has slowed, with about 86,000 jobs being added between May 2013 and May 2014, he said, while U.S. employment growth totalled 1.9 million over the same period.

“Trade competitiveness problems remain the most likely explanation for this underperformance,” Madini said