Expert’s forecast predicts warmer winter across Canada
Developing El Niño expected to bring milder weather to most of Canada
Don’t put away the snowblower just yet, but Environment Canada is predicting a milder winter for most Canadians this year — a much improved outlook from the brutal weather most of Canada saw last year.
According to senior climatologist David Phillips, the forecast from now until February calls for warmer-than-normal weather for most of Western Canada, from British Columbia through to Manitoba and up into Yukon and the Northwest Territories. Atlantic Canada is also expected to be in for milder temperatures.
“The good news for all Canadians is that there’s no area of significant population where we’re showing colder than normal,” Phillips told CBC News on Tuesday.
Though not expected to see above-average temperatures, the forecast calls for less consistent snow and cold for Ontario and Quebec, CBC reported.
The improved winter outlook is partly caused by a developing El Niño, the periodic weather phenomenon caused by warming of the Pacific Ocean.
Forecasters in Australia and New Zealand said Tuesday El Nino may soon be back for the first time since 2010.
Tropical Pacific temperatures have exceeded El Niño levels for a month and the Southern Oscillation Index, or SOI, has remained at or near thresholds for three months, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said in a statement.
Patterns are consistent with a weak event developing, New Zealand’s National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research said separately.
The last El Nino was from 2009 to 2010, and the Pacific has either been in its cooler state, called La Nina, or neutral since then.On the SOI, sustained negative values below minus eight, may indicate an El Nino. It has remained between minus 11 and minus seven over the past two weeks and the latest 30day value to Nov. 30 is minus 10, the Australian bureau said.
“Further warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely, so it also remains possible that the ocean and atmosphere will fully couple in the coming weeks to months,” Australia’s bureau said in the bi- weekly update.
“If an El Niño is established, models suggest it will be weak, or moderate at best.” While some indicators are close to or exceed thresholds, others have remained near-average or only temporarily approached El Niño levels, Australia’s bureau said. That indicates the interaction between the ocean and atmosphere required for an El Niño to be declared may not be fully locked in, it said, maintaining an alert that indicates at least a 70 per cent chance that an event will be declared in the coming months.
The New Zealand institute said, “some — but importantly not all — atmospheric indicators also show patterns consistent with the development of a weak El Niño.”
International guidance indicates that the chance of an El Niño developing between December and February is about 75 per cent, it said. El Ninos occur every two to seven years and are associated with warmer-than-average years.
“Regardless of whether an El Niño is declared, El Nino-like effects are likely,” the Australian bureau said, citing effects already seen in the country as well as in Asia, South America and southern Africa.
Whether there’s an event or not, a number of signs have already emerged, it said. For Canadians casting a wary eye at the prospect of another hard winter, that has to come as a welcome sign.