Stinky time bomb? Diesel is at a crossroads
Paris thinks it is and may ban the fuel sippers
It is, in one fell swoop, a lesson in the capriciousness of government edict, the unintended consequence of the once well-intentioned subsidy and — thrown in just for good measure — the little hint of hypocrisy that keeps French politics so interesting. Unfortunately, it may also signal that Europe’s love affair with the diesel is coming to an end.
Paris mayor Anne Hidalgo recently told Le Journal de Dimanche that she “wants to see the end of diesel in Paris by 2020.” Not only is she planning to ban all diesel-powered cars from the City of Light by 2020, she is already talking about stopping diesel-powered trucks from driving through Paris starting this July and even curbing the access of the city’s near-ubiquitous tourist buses in certain arrondissements. (Other French cities are thinking of following suit and London is contemplating adding a £10 diesel fee to its current £11.50 congestion surcharge.)
If estimates of diesel penetration into France’s fleet of more than 34 million automobiles are correct, this means that more than three-quarters of all French motorists won’t be able to drive in their own capital city.
Enticed by diesel’s 20 per cent fuel economy advantage and its promise to reduce the carbon dioxide emissions that so frightened environmentalists 30 years ago, the French government offered tax breaks to promote diesel as the “green” alternative to gasoline. The populace was convinced: some 80 per cent of all French cars are now diesel powered and, last year, 64 per cent of all cars sold in France were oil burners, just slightly down from the peak of 73 per cent two years ago.
The problem is that, while diesels do indeed produce less carbon dioxide, they emit nitrous oxides and dangerous particulates in larger quantities. Indeed, thanks to its concentration of diesel engines, says the European Environmental Agency, Paris has a worse particulate count — 147 micrograms per cubic metre of air — than oft-denigrated Beijing.
According to one French report, 40,000 deaths a year — almost 4,000 in Paris alone — can be directly attributed to air pollution.
Naturally, the solution is another subsidy. This time, says French Energy Minister Segolene Royal, the cure-all will be a 10,000 euro bonus ($14,220) to anyone trading in a diesel on an electric vehicle. Yes — and pardon me for pointing out that Renault’s Zoe subcompact EV will be reduced from a seriously expensive 22,400 euros ($31,820) to an almost frugal 12,400 euros ($17,600) — the French solution to one subsidy gone terribly awry would seem to be another subsidy, the possibility of even more unintended consequences be damned.
But even such cynicism has to take a back seat to the hypocrisy of the nation that invented the unfiltered Gauloise suddenly decrying the stinkiness of the air it breathes. Even though France’s per-smoker consumption has dropped since it passed its first anti-smoking laws in 1991, the number of people smoking is actually on the rise. This is primarily, says L’Express, because the government that is coming down so hard on diesel engines has so far been unwilling to enforce the anti-smoking laws it passed so long ago.
And while environmental lobbies all around Europe step all over one another seeing who can exaggerate the dangerous effects of diesel fumes the most, at least one French lung specialist has injected a soupçon of common sense into the argument.
“In 50 years I have never come across anyone who died from air pollution,” professor Jean Philippe Derenne told England’s The Guardian. “Between those people who smoke two packets of cigarettes a day and those people who walk in the streets of Paris, there is not the beginnings of a comparison.”
This would all be nothing more than a tempest in a French teapot were it not for the nascent diesel revolution happening on our home soil. A rarity two decades ago, you can now find diesel engines in Mercedes’ popular GL and GLK SUVs, more than a few BMWs and even something as sensually sporty as Audi’s A7. Meanwhile, Chevrolet’s Cruze Diesel increased sales this year, Nissan is pushing its new Titan’s diesel powertrain, and fully 20 per cent of new Ram 1500s are powered by the company’s frugal Eco Diesel V6.
Consumers love the fuel economy; automakers are even happier with any technology that will help them hit stringent fuel economy regulations in the future. Projections for diesel penetration have never been rosier. Or not. In addition to the threat of excess pollution, diesel fuel prices have remained stubbornly higher than gas since the collapse of crude. While Canada doesn’t have the diesel-only road tax that exacerbates the problem south of the border, we do have a refinery system primarily fixed on gasoline production and our modern low-sulphur product requires more refining. Besides, with winter hitting hard, diesel is competing with home heating oil for output at refineries.
Whatever the case, last Monday, a litre of 87-octane rang in at 99.9 cents at the pumps while the same volume of diesel cost $1.10. Factor in the higher price of diesel locomotion — $2,500 for an Audi A6; $4,700 for a Ram pickup — and there’s no way that 20 per cent increased fuel economy can ever pay for itself.
Whatever the outcome of Paris’s travails, however, the situation may be worse than just the continued unpopularity of diesel in North America or the ghettoization of diesels in Europe. Not to belabour a point, but more than 20 years ago, the French government decreed diesel as the solution to its then-dominant environmental concern. Now that the unintended consequences of its well-intentioned subsidies have come home to roost, its solution is yet another subsidy, with not even a hint that its latest planet-saving technology might have similar unforeseen repercussions.
There just has to be a lesson in there somewhere.