Jim Watson isn’t going anywhere

By then he will turn 57, which is not an age to give up the best job he’s ever had

Let’s get this out of the way right now: He might have difficulty walking right now, but Jim Watson will be running for re-election in 2018.

Watson’s unfortunate injury last weekend only underscores how much the mayor loves his job. Missing a council meeting and scrapping his long list of public appearances is probably hurting as much as his fractured bones.

Some people get tired of a tough job after a few years. But being mayor of Ottawa has always been the role Watson has enjoyed the most and that suits him best. In 2018, he’ll turn 57. That’s not an age at which most people are ready to give up the best job they’ve ever had. It’s hard to imagine Watson enjoying anything at all — especially not retirement — as much as being mayor.

Many politicians see their popularity wane because of bad news, whether those events are selfinflicted or outside their control. In 2018, however, Watson will likely have a number of developments working in his favour. He’ll have just finished leading a year of celebrations of Canada’s 150th birthday, something he’s been working toward since he was elected in 2010. He’ll be getting ready to open the first phase of light rail and, with a little luck and a bit of federal funding, will be preparing to launch construction of the second phase. Unless he wants to quit on a high, he’ll have set himself up well for the next campaign.

Not every politician gets a chance at a third mandate. But unless he faces a surprising fight from council, in 2018 Watson will be putting the finishing touches on an eighth straight budget in which he kept to his tax-increase promises. Given how much he micromanages his checklist of campaign commitments, making sure every single box is ticked, it’s unlikely any will be left unbroken in the next three years.

Some elected leaders wear out their welcome. But as his enormous margin of victory demonstrated in October, Watson isn’t a particularly polarizing figure.

While he does sometimes use straw men for his arguments, he’s managed to avoid developing a growing list of enemies. So it’s unlikely he’ll have created a lot of voter fatigue by 2018. If Stephen Harper can stay competitive after nine years in office, Watson should have lots of political capital left after eight.

After that much time in the same job, some people lose their focus, but it’s hard to imagine Watson relinquishing his instinct to carefully manage the municipal agenda (even while recuperating), nor his signature brand of retail politics.

Some incumbents blink in the face of a tough challenger. But it’s unlikely any serious contender will want to take on a guy who lives and breathes the job every day of the year. It’s almost impossible to outwork Watson or, given his position occupying all the middle lanes of the road, outflank him.

In other words, it would take a significant obstacle to keep Watson off the ballot in 2018. A lot can happen in three years, but there are likely few things that the control freak in Watson hasn’t already thought of.

So unless a major scandal or a more significant health issue than a snowmobiling accident materializes, it’s almost impossible to imagine that Watson won’t be running for a third term. Indeed, in many ways, the timing will be perfect. And given that he’s had a hand in many of the milestones that happen to coincide with an election year, we shouldn’t be surprised.

Before his injury, Watson probably wasn’t seriously considering early retirement. But after a month of involuntary inactivity — a small taste of what retirement would be like — he’ll probably be more certain than ever that he would miss the job desperately if he gave it up.

At the long-term care facility where he’s recuperating from his injuries, Jim Watson is probably working the room as we speak. Those aren’t just fellow residents; they’re the voters of 2018.