Canada’s move into Syria won’t help in any way
We are getting into a civil war, writes Ronald Crelinsten .
On Monday, the House of Commons voted to approve the extension of the government’s military mission in Iraq for another year and its expansion into Syria, with both opposition parties opposed.
The government’s justification is that ISIL is moving back into Syria after suffering setbacks in Iraq. It invokes Article 51 of the United Nations Charter: the inherent right of individual or collective self-defence if an armed attack occurs against a UN member. This is shaky legal ground that the U.S. and Israel have been promoting for years to justify their military incursions against terrorist groups in other countries.
The argument that ISIL threatens Canada directly is even more tenuous, the lone-wolf attacks of last October notwithstanding. With its declaration of a caliphate, and its control of territory, ISIL’s main goal is to consolidate its rule. It has attracted over 20,000 foreigners to help, and most have no interest in returning home — only the disillusioned or the burnt-out.
Public opinion polls suggest that Canadians largely support the government’s move. This is only because most people abhor what ISIL is doing and want them to be confronted — a natural sentiment that indeed reflects Canadian values. Striking hard at terrorists abroad makes people feel good, and gives the impression that the government is serious about doing something.
From a counterterrorism perspective, however, a war model may have some advantages in the short term, but creates many problems in the longer term. Research has shown that military strikes do not reduce terrorism over the medium or long term. On the contrary, they tend to exacerbate violence and to create an environment where sectarian violence can thrive. Especially when western troops are involved, as in Afghanistan, Iraq post-2003, Libya in 2011, and Syria since August 2014, military intervention feeds the jihadist narrative, facilitates recruitment and fuels radicalization at home.
The 2003 invasion of Iraq spawned al-Qaida in Iraq, ISIL’s predecessor, and played directly into their hands by providing them with a grievance that could be exploited, and legitimacy as an important actor in a war of equals.
The subsequent increase in terrorism around the world, and the growing ease with which homegrown terrorists were spawned by the now-pervasive Salafist-jihadist “brand,” is being replayed again in the struggle with ISIL in Iraq and Syria.
The 2011 military intervention in Libya, in which Canada participated, has led, four years later, to increasing conflict between rival factions, a resurgence of terrorism, and the surfacing of ISIL operatives in that country.
Civilian casualties can also fuel resentment and mobilize terrorist recruitment. Friendlyfire incidents, such as the recent one in which Sgt. Andrew Joseph Doiron was killed by Kurdish peshmerga, can strain international co-operation and co-ordination of counterterrorism efforts with allies.
More troubling by far, expansion into Syria brings Canada directly into a complex civil war that is essentially a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia that goes far beyond a mere counterterrorism problem. One need only look at recent developments in Yemen — another theatre of this proxy war — to see how chaotic things can become.
Until Sunnis and their tribal leaders in both Iraq and Syria feel that they have a chance living under existing Shia rule, they will support ISIL as the lesser of two evils.
Military intervention won’t help here at all. Only political, diplomatic and development initiatives, at local and regional levels, including anti-corruption and power-sharing efforts, can have any hope of long-term success.
The elephant in this labyrinthine room is Russia. Vladimir Putin will never accept the ouster of Bashar Assad. This is why Turkey’s call for a no-fly zone, though it makes strategic sense, won’t fly politically.
All this suggests that expansion of the Canadian mission into Syria won’t accomplish much and could make matters worse, both in Syria and at home.
It’s extremely complicated, but Canadians will undoubtedly understand these complexities more, as the government brings them deeper into this quagmire.