Jitters in the camp of the federal Liberals
Liberal leader could fail to win, but still end up in second place
Has Justin Trudeau’s star at last begun to settle, or fall? And if that’s true, and he fails to lead his father’s party back from the wilderness, will he stick around for long afterward as leader? Will he be allowed to? If this were any other political entity such questions might be moot. But these are federal Liberals, who devour their young with stunning ruthlessness and regularity.
As polls indicate a continuing dip in Trudeau’s appeal, the jitters in the red camp are bound to grow.
So, what shape are they in, really, six months from election time?
On balance, the recent chorus of doom-speak about Trudeau’s fortunes is probably overdone. It has at least something to do with our (this is to say the media’s) perpetual thirst for a new and different theme, in this case the Icarus story. Precisely because Trudeau’s popularity had been so resilient in the face of his opponents’ attacks and his own blunders, the stage was set for a reversal. That is now upon us, as evidenced by recent surveys showing his party’s once commanding lead has melted away. In the aggregate, as measured by poll tracker threehundredeight.com, the Tories now narrowly lead nationally with 32 per cent support; the Liberals cling to 31 per cent, with the New Democratic Party still well back at 22 per cent.
In vote-rich Ontario, the key numerical battleground in the coming campaign, Conservatives now hold close to 37 per cent support, with the Liberals at just over 35 and the NDP at 19. An Ipsos survey conducted for Global News, released Monday, showed Trudeau tumbling into third place, at 30 per cent, on the question of who would make the best prime minister. Prime Minister Stephen Harper scored first at 38 per cent, with Tom Mulcair second at 31 per cent. Should the pattern hold, the Tories are on track to win again in October, with a minority; the Liberals will move into second place, with Trudeau becoming leader of the opposition; and the Dippers will slip back to their historical third-place slot, though still with more seats than they had ever held before Jack Layton’s 2011 Orange Crush.
Therein lies the reason why it’s far too soon to start planning Trudeau’s political obituary. Put simply, he has the advantage of being so far behind on the ground, holding just 36 seats, that he can afford to lose and still come out ahead, based on the numbers. Even a secondplace showing could see the Liberals more than double their seat count; a move into Stornoway, plus restoration of the party’s finances, should be enough to buy him a second shot, at least in theory.
Add to this that Trudeau
Few Canadians now doubt, as previous polls have shown, that Justin Trudeau is an amiable man who means well. But does he have a killer instinct?
has said little or nothing since his “liberty” speech in early March, and continues to hold details of his platform in reserve; there is an element of keeping his powder dry in all this, which looks calculated. Nor should it be lost on anyone that progressives who might otherwise vote NDP may be more likely to vote Liberal if they believe there’s a strong chance of a fourth Harper victory.
All this being said, Trudeau is playing a risky game, for the simple reason that a slump can easily become a rout. This week, he ceded his party’s economic critique of the government to Ralph Goodale, Scott Brison, Bill Morneau and others. And once again the Liberal leader made headlines, not because of a policy position taken, but because of a garbled message about whether he would, or would not, consider a postelection coalition with the NDP. First he said he might, or might not; then he said he definitely won’t. The impression left, again, is of a leader who lacks an internal editor.
More worrying for Liberals has to be that, with six months to go until zero hour, their leader has yet to demonstrate he has the gravitas, fast judgment and personal authority to hold his own against Harper and Mulcair in televised debate. Few Canadians now doubt, as previous polls have shown, that Justin Trudeau is an amiable man who means well. But does he have a killer instinct? Is he enough of a bastard, as one veteran politics-watcher put it to me recently, to be prime minister?
Though this is not admitted in polite company, it was Trudeau’s thrashing of nowsuspended senator Patrick Brazeau with his fists three years ago that first pushed him into the spotlight as a potential national leader. This is ridiculous; but also true. Trudeau has yet to show he can deliver a beating politically, in the heat of battle. In 1984, Brian Mulroney trounced John Turner with a single turn of phrase (“You had an option, sir!”).
Leaving the proving till the last minute, with all the marbles riding on the outcome, seems like an inordinate risk to run, given the unpredictable nature of debate.
It’s far too soon to start planning Trudeau’s political obituary. Put simply, he has the advantage of being so far behind on the ground, holding just 36 seats, that he can afford to lose and still come out ahead. Michael Den Tandt