‘Unofficial’ election campaign season kicks off in Calgary
Call it a dress rehearsal, a phoney war, or a political marathon launched in the doldrums of summer.
But there’s no denying what lies ahead for Canadian voters in the coming weeks. They will be bombarded with sales pitches from the federal political parties and their leaders.
The unofficial kickoff begins Friday, as Prime Minister Stephen Harper, NDP leader Tom Mulcair and Liberal leader Justin Trudeau don cowboy hats to attend the Calgary Stampede and press the flesh with voters. Elsewhere, Green leader Elizabeth May and Bloc Québécois leader Gilles Duceppe will also be gearing up.
The road will be long — 108 days to the Oct. 19 election. On the way, long before the race even begins officially, there will countless barbecues and appearances by the leaders, a wave of online and TV ads from the parties and interest groups, and an unprecedented precampaign leaders debate.
Tom Flanagan, who is a fellow at the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy, said that while most voters won’t pay close attention to every twist and turn, “Nevertheless, all the pre-campaigning is important in positioning yourself in the minds of opinion leaders — the journalists and special interest groups who have some influence on voters.”
Flanagan, who ran two of Harper’s leadership races and the Conservatives’ 2004 election campaign, said the unofficial early start to this race will foster a greater emphasis on policy than is normally the case in a five-week campaign.
He said the parties are working hard to develop a “narrative” that will carry into the campaign and frame the ballot-box question.
“For the Conservatives, it’s predictability. Harper wants people to look at his record and to remember the accomplishments, which are mainly lower taxes, a balanced budget, trade agreements and muscular foreign policy. He doesn’t want people to be thinking about failures in appointments, such as senators who got into trouble.”
Meanwhile, Flanagan said the Liberals and NDP are both chasing the same vote as supposed champions of the middle class.
“Their portrait of the government will be the same — an authoritarian, undemocratic government which has helped a few friends but which has ignored the needs of a lot of groups they will enumerate.”
Here are some things to watch for this summer:
THE POLLS
Mulcair’s New Democrats have surged into first place. The critical question is whether they can sustain that lead over the summer.
Pollster Frank Graves, president of EKOS, said the rise of the NDP has been steady over several months. Some Canadians switched their support to Mulcair because of his steadfast opposition to Bill C-51 compared to Trudeau’s qualified support. Also, Alberta NDP Premier Rachel Notley’s May 5 election victory broke a psychological barrier for Canadians previously unsure if it was worth voting NDP federally.
“It’s allowed people to think that if the most conservative province in Canada can elect an NDP majority government, then maybe it’s not as unthinkable as we thought.”
THE PARTIES’ STRATEGIES
Conservative spokesman Kory Teneycke said the election will essentially revolve around leadership, the economy, and security.
“From our perspective, it’s a big choice, an important choice. It’s about deciding who the prime minister will be — first and foremost. Who’s going to lead the government of these three individuals?”
Senior NDP campaign adviser Brad Lavigne said his party will spend the summer emphasizing that Harper doesn’t deserve another term and driving home the related point: “Tom Mulcair is the only leader with the experience and the plan to defeat Stephen Harper and to repair the damage that he’s done.”
Liberal spokesperson Kate Purchase said Trudeau “will be spending a lot of time on the road” talking about his party’s plan to put “more money in the pockets of middle class families, as well as real change on transparency in government and on protecting our environment.”
In recent weeks, Trudeau has released platform planks on those issues and his candidates will knock on thousands of doorsteps with their newly printed policy booklets. Liberals believe the election could hinge on who wins the “ground war” — which party is best organized in the country’s 338 ridings.
THE ADS
The Conservatives have more money than their rivals to air advertisements before spending limits take effect in the campaign.
They are already blanketing the airwaves with negative ads to raise questions about Trudeau’s competence.
However, one of their online ads — on Facebook and YouTube — might have backfired by using gruesome ISIS propaganda images to highlight Trudeau’s opposition to the bombing missions in Iraq and Syria. Critics say the ad is in poor taste and violates the government’s own anti-terror law.
Meanwhile, third-party interest groups that either oppose or support Harper will continue their ads this summer. During the campaign, they can only spend $200,000. But for now, they can spend as much as they want.
THE DEBATE
The Tories have rejected a plan by the major TV networks to stage televised debates. Instead, Harper says he will appear in five debates hosted by others.
Most notably, the first debate, hosted by Maclean’s magazine, will occur Aug 6 — before the campaign has even begun
The leaders will hold mock debates with their aides in preparation for the event, which could have an impact on the race if one of the leaders stumbles.
THE DUFFY TRIAL
Harper’s biggest political headache since 2013 has been the Senate expense scandal.
The trial of suspended Conservative senator Mike Duffy has been underway since the spring, but has not yet included testimony that seriously hurts Harper.
That may change on Aug. 11 when the court begins hearing from the star witness — Harper’s former chief of staff, Nigel Wright, who gave $90,000 of his own money to cover Duffy’s expenses.
What, if anything, did Harper know about this? What did he know about an apparent earlier plan by the Conservative party to pay Duffy’s expenses?
The answers could be political dynamite.
THE ECONOMY
Conservatives insist Harper is the country’s best economic manager. But looming economic numbers might cast doubt on that claim.
In the first quarter of 2015, Canada’s GDP shrunk by 0.6 per cent. In late August, the GDP numbers for the second quarter will be released. If the trend continues with another three months of economic contraction, it will mean that Canada is in a recession.
If so, Mulcair and Trudeau will be handed a dangerous political weapon.
THE WRIT
Because of the fixed election law, voting day is scheduled for Oct. 19. Assuming Harper decides to abide by the law — no sure thing, even at this late stage — he still gets to decide when the campaign begins.
By law, the campaign must last at least 37 days.
If he opts for the minimum, the race would start Sept. 13.
But speculation abounds Harper might fire the starting pistol earlier — possibly around Labor Day, or perhaps even in August.
Why would he do this? A longer campaign increases the spending cap for each of the parties (and the Tories have the biggest war chest).
As well, once the election writ is dropped, spending limits are placed on third party groups that have become political action committees (PACs).
If Harper wants to limit the influence of unions believed to be bankrolling at least one of those PACs, Engage Canada, this is one way of doing it.