HOW THE PAST SHAPES OUR POLITICAL FUTURE
Here’s a look back at some significant moments since the previous federal election, in 2011, and how they could influence the outcome this time around, writes Mary Taws.
JACK LAYTON’S DEATH, AUG. 22, 2011
Jack Layton was certainly a beloved leader in life, but after his death, he became something of a saint for the New Democrats. There were political advantages to this, such as using his inspiring words of “Hope is better than fear” on campaign signage. But Layton’s legacy is a double-edged sword for current NDP Leader Tom Mulcair.
Layton often supported middle-of-the-road ideas, such as help for seniors and tax breaks for small business. He was not always bold or traditionally left.
Mulcair, on the other hand, has been extremely clear about where he stands on issues. Unfortunately for him, the ghost of Layton hovers over him and is plastered all over NDP campaign materials.
SENATE EXPENSE SCANDAL, NOVEMBER 2012
The auditor general’s June 2015 report on the senators’ fraudulent claims said it all: “The oversight, accountability, and transparency of senators’ expenses was quite simply not adequate.” But as we’ve watched the ballad of Mike Duffy play out, and heard Sen. Nancy Ruth’s horrid tales of being offered cold Camembert, the question now is: Do Canadians still care enough about this to make it an election issue?
TRUDEAU’S ASCENT, APRIL 14, 2013
When Trudeau won the Liberal leadership race in 2013, the hopes for him to rebuild the party were high — and the polls at the time reflected those expectations. In the week leading up to his victory, a Forum Poll for the National Post found the Liberals would win with Trudeau at the helm, with 33 per cent of the vote, compared with 29 per cent for the Tories and 25 per cent for the NDP.
It’s important to remember Trudeau’s early stretch leading the polls — it could happen again.
HARPER’S SHRINKING INNER CIRCLE, 2013-15
Harper’s inner circle that led him to victory in the last election is looking much smaller today. Former finance minister Jim Flaherty and Harper’s former campaign manager, Sen. Doug Finley, have both died since the last election.
So when John Baird offered his resignation as foreign affairs minister in February, it was a big blow to team Harper. With over 20 years’ experience in the game, Baird was one of the prime minister’s most trusted cabinet members.
Peter MacKay’s recent decision to leave federal politics will make the election all the more difficult for Harper. As justice minister, MacKay was a solid adviser for the prime minister. The loss is compounded by the fact that MacKay comes from a political dynasty in Nova Scotia. The Conservatives were struggling to hold on to the 13 ridings they have in Atlantic Canada.
RUSSIA’S INVASION OF UKRAINE, FEBRUARY 2014
Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk was in Ottawa a few weeks ago to meet with Harper and finalize a trade deal. For political strategists, it should come as no surprise that a photo-op with a Yatsenyuk was a smart move for Harper ahead of the election period — there is a strong Ukrainian diaspora community in Canada. But leaked documents from the 2011 election have critics suggesting that the Tories’ entire foreign policy approach to Ukraine is about courting the 1.2 million voters in Canada who identify as Ukrainian.
FALL OF OIL PRICES, AUGUST 2014-PRESENT
The rapid fall of oil has been overwhelmingly negative for the Canadian economy.
In the summer of 2014, world crude prices were at US$100 per barrel and have since fallen to about $50 per barrel today.
Economically, it’s mostly bad. But politically, there is the potential for this downturn to shake up the election. It’s no secret that Harper has put time and effort into Alberta’s oilsands. With jobs declining in Alberta, the disenchanted could seek a change of pace with another party.
ATTACK ON PARLIAMENT HILL, OCT. 22, 2014
On Oct. 20, 2014, a Muslim terrorist deliberately rammed his car into a pair of Canadian soldiers in Quebec, leaving one of them dead. As the country mourned the tragedy, Ottawa was hit with another attack on Parliament Hill. In the aftermath of the second attack, which killed Cpl. Nathan Cirillo, the atmosphere in the House of Commons shifted. In an unusual display of emotion, Harper crossed the floor and hugged Trudeau and Mulcair.
Once than moment of solidarity passed, it became clear that all three major parties had conflicting positions on Canada’s role in the fight against ISIL. Bill C-51, which is now law, is strongly opposed by Mulcair, while it hasn’t been completely rejected by Trudeau.
While foreign affairs are not usually something Canadians vote on, these attacks made the war against ISIL a potential domestic security issue. Many observers, such as Brian-Lee Crowley of the national public-policy think-tank Macdonald-Laurier Institute, say voter reaction to all of this could alter election results.
“If people choose a narrative that fits in with their existing political prejudices, it will leave everything as it was,” Crowley told the National Post in 2014. “If on the other hand these events shake people out of their previous commitments, for one reason or another, it will have a very powerful effect.”
If attacks October) (the terrorist in … shake people out of their previous commitments, for one reason or another, it will have a very powerful effect.