WHY IS ONTARIO SO ‘SEAT-RICH’?

Q I’m already getting sick of this phrase “seatrich Ontario.” Why is there such a big focus on Ontario during federal elections?

A It’s Canada’s electoral candy store. As the most populous province, Ontario has about 9 million eligible voters, entitled to send 121 MPs to the House of Commons this election. That’s more than one-third of the 338 seats in the newly expanded chamber.

In fact, Ontarians will send almost as many MPs to Parliament as voters in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia combined. Quebec, the second biggest province, has 78 seats. So winning in Ontario is crucial to tasting power.

Q Don’t the other provinces count?

A Yes, but their ability to elect MPs is tied to the size of their populations. The smaller the province or territory, the fewer the seats it gets in Parliament.

Q Is there no justice, then, if I don’t live in Ontario?

A A tiny bit. Smaller provinces receive a slightly greater percentage of the seat allocation than their percentage of the national population. The bigger provinces receive slightly less. Prince Edward Island, with 0.42 per cent of the country’s population, gets four MPs representing 2.09 per cent of the seat total. Ontario, with 38.91 per cent of the population, gets 36.12 per cent of the seats.

Q Does Ontario favour one federal party over the others?

A Tory blue has been the prevailing political hue of late.

The 2011 and 2006 federal elections saw the Liberals lose seats, mainly to the Conservatives. The Harperites won 73 Ontario seats in 2011, with the New Democrats taking 22 and the Liberals 11 — down from the 54 seats the Grits won in 2006 and 75 seats in 2004.

Q How about the way Ontarians vote provincially? Does that tell us who they will vote for federally?

A Yes, but only in a perverse sense. Ontario’s Progressive Conservatives held power at Queen’s Park for most of the 20th century, while the federal Liberals controlled Parliament. The provincial Liberals have held uninterrupted power since 2003, while federal Conservatives have governed since 2006.

Now zoom in. The provincial Liberals went from a minority government to a majority in the 2014 election, all at the expense of Progressive Conservatives, who lost 10 seats. But the federal Conservatives routed the Liberals in the 2011 federal election in Ontario.

And then there’s the NDP. The surging federal party is looking to be a force in the Oct. 19 outcome. The only time the NDP has won Ontario was the 1990 provincial election under Bob Rae — while Tory Brian Mulroney was in power in Ottawa.