HAPPY CAMPERS
The only leader on the campaign trail Friday, Stephen Harper spent time with some young Scouts Canada members after promising help for British Columbia fisheries.
Stephen Harper has not inspired “deep affection” from Canadians but could win re-election because of the “respect” he draws from some voters, says former interim Liberal leader Bob Rae in a new book.
But Rae says a Conservative victory is not inevitable as Harper faces off against NDP Leader Tom Mulcair and Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau — both of whom he concludes also have political strengths.
Rae writes that a majority government may prove elusive for any party, an outcome he believes could be beneficial for Canadians if it forces political rivals to work together in the next Parliament.
His assessments are contained in “What’s Happened to Politics?” — a book that examines how the political system has declined in recent decades, with “partisan spin” replacing meaningful policy.
Rae left politics in 2013 after a lengthy federal and provincial career, including five years as Ontario’s NDP premier.
In a chapter on political leadership, Rae assesses the “strengths and vulnerabilities” of the three main party leaders in this year’s federal election.
He writes that Harper must seek a “better connection” with voters after showing that while he can “get things done,” he has caused “deep division.”
Mulcair leads a party with “no shortage of policy” and must show a “more human side” while proving the NDP’s Orange Wave in 2011 “was no fluke.”
And Trudeau is a “gifted persuader” who will work hard “to show that his charm is a prologue to real leadership.”
Rae, a Liberal, says Trudeau has shown discipline and has been underestimated. Trudeau has done a “commendable job” of rebuilding the Liberal party after just two years in charge of it, he writes.
“Even so, it will take an extraordinary campaign to put the Liberals in majority territory,” he writes.
If Harper wins a fourth straight mandate on Oct. 19, it will be the first time since Sir Wilfrid Laurier in 1908.
“Stephen Harper was badly underestimated by his opponents and dismissed as being too stiff and too dogmatic,” Rae says of the Conservative leader’s performance in past campaigns. “What this criticism missed, and still misses, is that he is determined, disciplined, and even pragmatic as he steers the country to where he thinks it should be.
“Mr. Harper has not inspired deep affection like a Ronald Reagan, but there is a respect from enough of the electorate to make it possible, though certainly not inevitable, for him to win another mandate.”
Rae writes that the Conservatives’ attacks against former Liberal leaders Stéphane Dion and Michael Ignatieff were “ruthless” but “effective” in past campaigns.
“None of it was pretty, but fear can be as important a motivator in politics as it is in the rest of our lives.”
At the same time, he writes, people may tire of “negativity” and “nastiness” in this campaign.
Rae was the interim Liberal leader from 2011 to 2013, and describes Trudeau as the “polar opposite” of Harper.
“He is charming, entering a room with enthusiasm and warmth, joking with the crowd. He has charisma. He likes people, and people like him. He is resilient.”
Rae writes that he doesn’t believe the support for NDP in Quebec four years ago was a “seismic” shift to the political left or right, but more a reaction to then-NDP leader Jack Layton and “what was on offer at the time.”
Mulcair is a “capable” performer in Parliament but is having difficulty generating the same warmth that Layton inspired, he writes.
The leaders will need to reach beyond their own existing strengths to win, concludes Rae.
“The result may not be decisive, and a majority may prove elusive. But that could prove more of an opportunity to Canadians than they might think. If an election means that our leaders have to compromise (and) engage with one another as respected colleagues and opponents — rather than as caricatures to be derided and ignored — and work within the realities of the present day, it means they have to listen to the issues that Canadians bring forward.”
In an interview Friday, Rae said this week’s testimony and email evidence at Sen. Mike Duffy’s trial could harm Harper, further deepening concerns among Canadians, including Conservative voters, about his centralized approach to governing. He said it’s too early in the campaign to predict the outcome.
“It just takes the ability of any one of the leaders to see things consolidate behind them. Everything ’s possible.”
Mr. Harper has not inspired deep affection like a Ronald Reagan, but there is a respect from enough of the electorate to make it possible, though certainly not inevitable, for him to win another mandate. — Former interim Liberal leader Bob Rae