ARMAGEDDON
“It is not difficult to imagine scenarios in which either U.S. or Russian action could set in motion a chain of events at the end of which American and Russian troops would be killing each other,” wrote Graham Allison, former assistant U.S. secretary of defence, and Dimitri Simes, publisher of the National Interest, a U.S. foreign policy magazine.
Their April 2015 article in the National Interest, titled “Russia and America: Stumbling to War,” also highlighted the willingness of Russian hard-liners to use nuclear weapons if a conventional conflict got out of hand. “In these debates, many ask whether President Obama would risk losing Chicago, New York and Washington to protect Riga, Tallinn and Vilnius,” they wrote.
“It is a troubling question. If you want to either dumbfound or silence a table next to you in a restaurant in Washington or Boston, ask your fellow diners what they think.”
For now, Americans and Canadians say they would support a military response — in theory.
In June, the Pew Research Centre, based in Washington, conducted a survey in 10 nations to gauge views on the Ukraine crisis. The majority of Canadians and Americans interviewed said their nations should act militarily if a NATO nation was attacked. Almost half of those surveyed in the United Kingdom, Poland, and Spain also agreed.
There was a split, however, among the populations of other NATO nations. “At least half of Germans, French and Italians say their country should not use military force to defend a NATO ally if attacked by Russia,” the centre noted. (The survey was based on 11,116 interviews in NATO nations, Ukraine and Russia.)
Another scenario, short of war, that could also have serious consequences centres on the unintended effects of ongoing economic sanctions against Russia. The result could be widespread chaos, eventually leading to the fracturing of Russia into uncontrollable nuclear armed mini-states.
The sanctions are supposed to force Putin to back down on Ukraine and the Crimea. Yet he has shown no desire to reverse course. In fact, the economic sanctions have further shored up his support among the Russian people, who blame the West for their troubles, according to Pew researchers. Meanwhile, Russia’s economic situation has significantly worsened with the steep drop in oil prices.
Canada’s Conservative government has called for even more sanctions against the Russians but European nations, in particular Germany, have been leery. Tougher sanctions would further destabilize Russia, an outcome that is in no one’s best interest, German vicechancellor Sigmar Gabriel warned.
It might, however, be too late to stave off such an outcome. Earlier this year Stratfor, a private intelligence firm with ties to the U.S. military and CIA, predicted economic sanctions, combined with low oil prices, could lead to the eventual collapse of Russia. Out of that would emerge smaller, poorer and potentially uncontrollable states.
Russia’s central government would no longer have control over the country’s 8,000 nuclear weapons – a situation Stratfor termed "the greatest crisis of the next decade.
“Russia is the site of a massive nuclear strike force distributed throughout the hinterlands,” Stratfor explained. “The decline of Moscow’s power will open the question of who controls those missiles and how their non-use can be guaranteed.”
The tension between Russia and the West isn’t expected to get better anytime soon. Some of Putin’s advisers see NATO’s ultimate goal as crippling Russia to the point where it cannot challenge the West, either militarily or economically. “The full financial force of the West is concentrated on attacking us,” Nikolai Starikov, a popular Russian pundit with links to the Putin regime, told a seminar in Russia in December. “What they are doing is smashing the foundations of a great geopolitical construction that will become their competitor.”
Last month, meanwhile, U.S. air force secretary Deborah James told American lawmakers that Russia was the biggest threat facing the country today. Gen. Joseph Dunford, slated to be the next chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, echoed that view. And U.S. Air Force Gen. Paul Selva, who is to become American’s number two military officer, said Russia has overtaken ISIL as the greatest threat to the U.S.
Earlier this year, Canada’s Citizenship and Immigration Minister Chris Alexander voiced similar views. He said that while the war in Iraq and Syria is an important issue, the number one threat to world security is the crisis in Ukraine. Alexander called on all countries to come together to drive the Russians out of Crimea and Ukraine.
“There is absolutely no scenario going into the future that leads to peace and security for this world, that leads to prosperity in Europe globally that does not include a full international effort to give Ukraine the tools it needs to drive Russian forces from their borders and to secure its borders for good," he told Ukrainian Canadians in a speech in Toronto.
Less than a month later, U.S. Army Maj.- Gen. Robert Scales, former commandant of the U.S. Army War College, outlined a similar solution to the crisis but in blunter language. "The only way (the U.S.) can turn the tide is start killing Russians, killing so many Russians that even Putin’s media can’t hide the fact that Russians are returning to their motherland in body bags,” the retired officer said.
Russia is the site of a massive nuclear strike force distributed throughout the hinterlands.
STRATFOR