Survey shows strong support for Tory position on face coverings
Surveys show voters of all parties back the Tory position, and the party itself is now a top choice for immigrants
According to some observers, Stephen Harper and the Conservatives are playing a dangerous game on at least two fronts with their opposition to the niqab. First, singling out a small group of Canadians and saying their choice of dress is unacceptable is to potentially expose them to scorn and harm. Second, it is potentially harmful for the Conservatives themselves because it risks a backlash from immigrant voters, a group — or more accurately, a set of groups — that the party has so strongly courted.
It is too early to know the risk of the first danger, though we should hope that it does not materialize. But what of the risk of losing the ethnic vote? Data from our Local Parliament Project surveys suggests this is far from likely.
Indeed, it suggests that Harper’s niqab move appears to have more upside than downside. There is overwhelming support for the Conservative positions on the niqab. And, perhaps for the first time, the Conservatives are experiencing a measurable electoral advantage among immigrants.
(The Local Parliament Project surveys between 600 and 800 different Canadians each day. Readers can find detailed information on our methods and can try our survey at www.localparliament.ca.)
Beginning this week, we asked respondents two questions on the niqab. First, we asked them if they agreed or disagreed with the following statement: “Women wearing a niqab or face covering should be forced to reveal their face when giving an oath of citizenship.”
Then we asked if they agreed or disagreed with this statement: “Women working in the federal civil service should not be allowed to wear a niqab or face covering when interacting with the public.”
On the citizenship oath measure, 72 per cent of Canadians agree. Just 14 per cent disagree. (Another 14 per cent either don’t know or are ambivalent.) This opinion is not isolated to “old stock” Canadians. Among those citizens born outside the country, 70 per cent agree with forcing women to reveal their faces.
Even when we break out the results according to how individuals voted in the 2011 election, we find widespread support in every category: 62 per cent of Liberals, 85 per cent of Conservatives, 72 per cent of New Democrats, 85 per cent of Bloc Québécois voters and 69 per cent of Green voters support a ban on niqabs in citizenship ceremonies.
It is a similar story when we ask whether the public service should ban niqabs. Sixty-four per cent of people we surveyed support such a ban. Just 19 per cent oppose it. Support is undiminished among immigrants, where two-thirds (66 per cent) would support a ban and just 16 per cent would not. And, once again, support is strong across all 2011 voter groups: 56 per cent of Liberals, 74 per cent of Conservatives, 66 per cent of New Democrats, 86 per cent of Bloquistes, and 51 per cent of Green voters would support such a ban.
Some have noted that the niqab is an effective issue, not only because it garners wide support but also because it is largely irrelevant to voters. It is, at best, a useful distraction. But this misses something important about voters: they often take their cues from politicians about what is important.
By the time we surveyed voters, the niqab had been a point of discussion for more than two weeks. When we asked our respondents how important the issue is to them, 78 per cent indicated that the niqab in citizenship ceremonies is a somewhat or very important issue. We got the same results when we asked about a niqab ban in the public service.
We now have a situation in which opinion-leaders — newspaper columnists, pundits, commentators — almost uniformly insist that a policy is both wrong and unimportant while voters disagree on both accounts.
Our data tell a broader story about multiculturalism and Tory support. Political scientists — especially André Blais and Richard Johnston — have long noted that the 20th century dominance of the Liberal party was attributable to outsized support among Catholics and visible minorities, perhaps especially immigrants (to the extent that those categories overlap). Consequently, the Tories have spent considerable effort courting various groups of immigrants to their party.
Data from both the 2011 Canadian Election Study and Ipsos-Reid’s massive 2011 exit survey suggest that the Tories may have finally closed this “immigrant gap” in the last election. Our data suggests that they have now not only closed the gap, but have created a significant advantage of their own among immigrant Canadians.
To test this, we calculated the odds of Canadians voting Conservative that controls for a respondent’s age, income, education and gender, province of residence and, importantly, religion.
The results, which draw on massive sample sizes, show that a native-born citizen has a 27 per cent likelihood of voting Conservative. The likelihood for an immigrant Canadian voting Conservative is 34 per cent.
Because we controlled for religious affiliation, we can also estimate these effects. Compared to the non-religious, Jews and non-Orthodox Christians have a greater likelihood of voting for the Conservative party. But among Muslim Canadians, there is a clear aversion to the Conservative Party of Canada.
The niqab has become a campaign issue in this election, and perhaps the issue. There are several reasons for this, but public opinion research points to one of the more important ones: given the consistent, widespread support across the political spectrum for the Conservatives’ stated position, the Tories can only stand to gain from the issue playing prominently in the public discourse.
The Tories may have finally closed the ‘immigrant gap.’ Our data suggests they have created a significant advantage of their own among immigrant Canadians.