Next defence minister faces Russians-in-Syria quandary

Canada’s next defence minister — either new or returning — will have to hit the ground running right after the federal election as the crisis in Syria threatens to pull western forces into a conflict with Russia and undercut the war against ISIL.

Russia’s decision to enter the Syrian war in support of that country’s besieged leader, Bashar Assad, has thrown a curve ball at nations involved with the U.S. coalition.

The Americans acknowledge they had little warning and their intelligence agencies didn’t realize the full extent of Russian involvement, which now includes bombing raids and cruise missile strikes, until they had begun. Russian helicopter gunships are also reported to have entered the battle. Russia is targeting U.S.-backed rebels fighting Assad’s regime, as well as forces aligned with the Islamic State.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has ignored western condemnation.

Because of the federal election, Defence Minister Jason Kenney did not attend a meeting of NATO ministers this week to discuss Russia’s actions. Instead, John Forster, deputy minister of the Department of National Defence, went.

Walter Dorn, a professor at the Royal Military College, says Canada’s approach to the crisis in Iraq and Syria will be dictated by which party forms the next federal government on Oct. 19.

The Conservatives have suggested expanding the military mission, the Liberals would stop the air campaign and increase the number of training personnel, and the NDP would pull out of the operation altogether.

But Canada and its NATO partners have to be careful in handling the Syrian situation, Dorn says. Russian aircraft have already violated Turkish airspace during their combat missions. Russian aircraft and cruise missiles have come uncomfortably close to U.S. jets and drones, warned U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter.

“It’s important that NATO show it will take action for any incursions into Turkey but at the same time there should be a lot of talk so that mistakes don’t escalate into Russian blood being spilled,” explained Dorn. “You have to be so careful and try to avoid a situation which could escalate. The Cuban missile crisis showed us how dangerous that can be.”

Carter has admitted the U.S. military has yet to work out a process to avoid a confrontation with Russian forces fighting in Syria.

The stakes are higher than in Ukraine, as the Syrian war has Russian, U.S. and coalition aircraft operating in the same airspace and dropping bombs.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry acknowledged the danger of a confrontation and noted the importance of putting in place protocols as “a way of making sure that planes aren’t going to be shooting at each other and making things worse.”

Canada is leaving it up to the U.S. to ensure those safety rules with the Russians are determined. Canadian aircrews have been provided with instructions by the U.S.-led coalition on what to do if they encounter the Russian military.

The Canadian military has not had communications with the Russians since March 2014 when the Conservative government ordered the suspension of contact between the two militaries because of the Ukraine situation. “This status has not changed,” said Canadian Forces spokesman Capt. Kirk Sullivan.

The Russians say they decided to take action because the U.S. coalition fighting ISIL has failed.

The coalition has been bombing for more than a year but ISIL continues to hold much of the territory it originally seized in Syria and Iraq.

Russia also has its own interest in keeping Assad in power. It operates a key naval base in Syria and Assad has been a major customer for Russian arms.

The Russians are also angry about what they see as Western incompetence in the region.