Gatineau driving the decline in jobless rate

On the surface, the capital region’s job market looks healthy. The jobless rate dropped to 6.3 per cent in September from 6.5 per cent in August — the lowest tally in nearly a year.

The region added 3,200 jobs in September for a record total of 714,800 — and 1,200 people were removed from the unemployment rolls according to Statistics Canada’s monthly labour force survey published Friday.

Even better, two key sectors of the local economy appear to be recovering from prolonged slumps: The tech sector saw employment levels rise to 41,200 from 38,000 in August while the federal government added 1,300 jobs locally for a new total of 128,300.

Nevertheless, when you peel away some of the layers, something profoundly disquieting is happening on the Ottawa side of the river. Consider the patterns of the past year.

While the jobless rate in Ottawa fell to 6.2 per cent in September compared to 6.7 per cent a year earlier, this was not the result of strong hiring. In fact Ottawa shed 6,200 jobs to reach 530,200. The reason the unemployment rate fell was because nearly 10,000 people left the workforce.

Now contrast this with Gatineau’s job market, where the unemployment rate tumbled to 6.7 per cent in September from 7.6 per cent a year earlier. However, this decline reflected a surge in hiring: employment levels are up 12,400 from a year ago, or 7.2 per cent.

Along the way, Gatineau’s workforce has become relatively more vibrant. In September 72.6 per cent of the population was part of the workforce, up sharply from 68.8 per cent a year ago.

In Ottawa, the ratio was 68.4 per cent, down from 70.4 per cent.

These numbers will no doubt give Conservative candidates in Ottawa heartburn, but what’s behind the opposing trends?

Some clues can be found in more detailed StatsCan data on government employment. The numbers show that despite the all-encompassing nature of the government downsizing program, it’s playing out very differently by region.

During the year ended in September, the number of federal government employees living in Ottawa dropped to 89,600, a decline of 13,300. Over the same period, federal government employment actually increased by 5,100 in Gatineau.

Because StatsCan surveys households and not the place of work, we can’t draw conclusions about what’s happening from the government operations that happen to be based in Gatineau.

The divergence between government job trends in Ottawa and Gatineau has more to do with decisions by residents about whether or not to take a buyout or pursue opportunities elsewhere.

All we can say for the moment is that disproportionately more government workers appear to be staying put in Gatineau.