CLIMATE TALKS: THE HEAT IS ON
Trudeau, Canada face big challenge
It’s a critical moment for Canada on the world stage, a chance to show just how serious the country is about battling climate change. Next week, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau — accompanied by most of the premiers — travels to Paris for a major global meeting on what many consider the planet’s most pressing problem.
Trudeau has promised that Canada will take a leadership role in curbing the greenhouse gases (GHGs) that cause global warming, after a decade of what Liberals say was inaction under Stephen Harper’s Conservative government.
There’s a palpable sense of urgency among environmentalists – and many of the more than 190 governments that will be represented at the Paris negotiations – to come away with an ambitious, yet realistic, climate change treaty that is legally binding.
“As time moves on and progress isn’t achieved, it gets more and more critical to actually get action in place when these countries get together,” said David McLaughlin, former president of the National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy. “Time is running out.” The exact structure of the Paris agreement and which components will actually be binding is still being hammered out.
However, the overarching goal is clear: get the world moving on reducing greenhouse gases to prevent the global average temperature from increasing a potentially catastrophic two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Countries are hoping they can limit the temperature increase to around 1.5 degrees.
Developed countries are also trying to reach an agreement in Paris on how to provide $100 billion annually to developing nations to help with climate mitigation and adaptation.
“We’re dealing with a very desperate and dangerous situation in which we no longer have time for half measures, we have no time for procrastination,” said Green party Leader Elizabeth May, who also has been invited by Trudeau to attend the meeting, called COP21 (Conference of the Parties).
“It has to succeed, not because of political imperative, but because of what science tells us about how much the atmosphere is already overloaded with greenhouse gases.”
WILL PARIS BE DIFFERENT?
Canadians can be forgiven if they take a bit of a skeptical view of the Paris climate-change conference, considering the limited action on the file by the Conservatives and the fact Canada came nowhere near hitting its Kyoto Accord targets under the Liberal government that preceded Stephen Harper.
But the Paris talks are different for a variety of reasons, say experts, not the least of which is that earlier this month the United Kingdom’s meteorological office reported that global temperatures are set to pass, by the end of 2015, a key milestone of one degree Celsius of warming since pre-industrial levels.
What’s more, the climate-change plans presented by more than 150 countries leading up to the Paris conference would still see the average global temperature increase too much: roughly 2.7 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2100.
Scott Vaughan, president and CEO of the International Institute for Sustainable Development and Canada’s former federal environment commissioner, said the Paris talks are critical because climate science has become so “absolutely clear” in the last few years that it demands countries act now.
Moreover, unlike previous United Nations COP meetings, there’s “real momentum” heading into Paris to bring all countries together, he said, including a much greater level of engagement from major emitters like China and the United States and developing countries such as India and Brazil.
“This is the 21st (UN climatechange conference) and there has clearly been disappointment in the previous 20 in terms of where we are and where the progress is,” Vaughan said.
Businesses are also climbing aboard, with the White House announcing last month that 81 companies, including many multinational powerhouses, have signed a climate pledge calling for a strong outcome in Paris, as well as committing to reducing their emissions and increase low-carbon investments.
“You’re seeing a political perspective, an economic perspective and now with increasing moral and ethical perspectives as well. This is the best convergence I’ve seen, since following these, in two decades,” Vaughan said.
But less than two weeks out from the start of the Paris meeting, nobody is sure what tangible outcomes will come from it.
Tension has emerged in recent days between the European Union – which wants a legally binding treaty – and the United States, which is indicating it won’t be bound by an agreement.
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said earlier this month any agreement will “definitely not” be a treaty, and that there won’t be legally binding reduction targets as was the case with the Kyoto Protocol.
“What they need to resolve is exactly what this will look like,” Vaughan added. “Right now, it’s safe to say no one knows.”
May, the Green party leader who will participate in the Canadian delegation, has extensive experience at UN climate conferences.
She said signs point to the Paris deal not including legally binding country targets as part of the treaty, but that individual countries’ climate commitments would ride alongside the accord. Countries would be able to update and improve their climate targets, but that there would be “no backsliding” to weaker targets.
Countries are also looking at mechanisms to review pledges made by nations every five years based on the best science.
What’s also important to watch at the conference is how developed nations iron out their differences over funding to help poorer countries cope with climate change.
Developed countries committed in the Copenhagen accord to contribute $100 billion annually by 2020 to help developing nations deal with climate change.
The promise was tied to an acknowledgment by developed countries of their responsibility for contributing to global warming, but the dollar commitments have been slow to come so far and are nowhere near the goal.
“The money is really, really important because the money is being seen as being tied to the level of ambition,” Vaughan said.
ALL EYES ON THE LIBERALS
Canada’s new Liberal government will be closely watched at the Paris conference for how ambitious it is on the climate file. Specifically, observers wonder how the country plans on shedding its label as an environmental laggard. To what extent it can get 13 provinces and territories to buy in to the national plan remains an open question too.
The federal government says it’s looking for an “ambitious agreement” out of the Paris conference, and that any treaty must be followed by firm actions to achieve real greenhouse gas reductions.
The Liberals promised in their election platform to establish national emissions-reduction targets, put a price on carbon and strengthen environmental reviews for energy projects like pipelines and oil and gas developments.
The prime minister will host a first ministers’ meeting with the premiers on Monday to discuss the country’s strategy going into the COP21 meetings in Paris.
The cabinet and premiers will receive a climate briefing by top climate scientists, which will be followed by a working dinner with the first ministers that evening.
“What happens in the big global room for Canada isn’t as important as what happens in the national delegation room for Canada,” McLaughlin said. “This is the real negotiation for Canada. This is the real room that matters for Canada in terms of taking national action.”
The Liberals’ election platform promised that Trudeau would attend the Paris conference with the premiers and within 90 days of the conference “formally meet to establish a pan-Canadian framework” for combating climate change.
Environment and Climate Change Minister Catherine McKenna has indicated Canada’s new climate-change targets, and plan for achieving them, won’t be released at the Paris summit.
Rather, they will be announced in the coming months after the federal, provincial and territorial governments “really sit down and do the hard work of figuring out what is a realistic target and how we actually are going to take actions to achieve it,” she said.
For the time being, the former Conservative government’s climate strategy, announced earlier this year – to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 30 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030 – will act as the “floor” for what Canada will propose going forward.
But federal opposition parties are demanding Canada announce new, aggressive targets in Paris, believing that doing so will convince other countries to follow suit with ambitious goals for reducing GHGs.
“We can’t go to these negotiations where the only level of commitment Canada has made are those commitments put on the record to the United Nations in May by the previous government,” May said. “The new government has a strategically unique opportunity in the world to break some of the deadlock, some of the mushiness, some of the lack of commitment we’ve seen from the negotiations the last number of years.”
OIL, GAS AND EMISSIONS
The elephant in the room for Canada is what the federal and Alberta governments will do about the oil and gas sector, especially the carbon-intensive Alberta oilsands — the fastest-growing source of emissions in the country.
The energy sector is a pillar of the Canadian economy, but the oilsands have been a favoured target for climate groups around the globe who’ve painted Canada as an environmental pariah.
Trudeau, in hopes of getting Canada’s premiers onside with the federal plan, has committed to giving the provinces and territories flexibility to meet the national targets, including being able to design their own carbon-pricing policies.
Oil and gas companies in Canada have long been preparing for a price on carbon dioxide emissions – be it through a direct carbon tax, cap-and-trade plan or regulations – and have already incorporated anticipated carbon pricing into their major business decisions.
Tim McMillan, president of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, is heading to Paris for COP21 so the industry can be part of Canada’s climate strategy going forward.
The industry regularly invests in new technologies to reduce its carbon footprint, he said, noting the sector has cut its per-barrel emissions by 30 per cent in last 25 years.
“We bring forward solutions that can be helpful and we need to be part of that conversation,” McMillan said in an interview.
The oil and gas sector is encouraged by signs that the Liberal government is looking at a “balanced approach” when it comes to the environment and the economy.
There’s an “opportunity” for the industry to be more proactive and vocal on the file, with an Alberta and federal government taking a different approach on the environment, he said.
However, the energy industry has been battered by low oil prices over the past several months. Crude dipped below $40 US per barrel this week. Capital budgets have been slashed by about 40 per cent in the oilpatch, he said, with roughly 40,000 direct layoffs in the oil and gas sector.
“This is a very challenging time,” he said. “Now we look at changes in the carbon file that could potentially add more costs. That could have increased pressure on our industry.”
It’s widely expected the Liberal government’s new climate-change plan will include greenhouse gas regulations on the oil and gas industry that were long promised, but never delivered, by the Conservative government.
Vaughan said a comprehensive emissions-reductions strategy must also strengthen regulations on coal-fired electricity plants, as well as the transportation sector (which accounts for around onequarter of Canada’s emissions) to improve fuel efficiency and reduce tailpipe emissions, he said.
Also critical are new energy efficiency standards in commercial and residential buildings, and appliances, he said.
But experts agree that Canada can’t realistically reach its climate goals without targeting carbon emissions in the oil and gas industry, especially the oilsands.
“If the last five years have taught us nothing, it’s that if we don’t get Alberta in the right zone on this, then it doesn’t matter in terms of Canada’s emissions,” McLaughlin said.
McKenna said this week the federal government is counting on a “credible plan” from the Alberta government to help meet the country’s national targets.
However, she also noted that all Canadians and their “consumption patterns” must be a part of Canada’s climate-change solutions if the country is to achieve its goals.
“We all need to be at the table doing our part,” McKenna told reporters this week following a meeting in Edmonton with her Alberta counterpart. We need to be implementing practical actions that reduce pollution. Without concrete actions across all sectors, across all of Canada, we will not be able to meet our targeted reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.”