Redblacks versus Ticats: The battle of the statistics
The Ottawa Redblacks are 60 good minutes of football from qualifying for the Grey Cup game for the first time.
The Hamilton Tiger-Cats are 60 good minutes from qualifying for the Canadian Football League championship game for the third consecutive year.
Only one team will succeed and getting there will require being better than the other guys in the East Division final at TD Place stadium on Sunday.
The second-year Redblacks (12-6) earned home field before a standing-room-only crowd of more than 25,000 by clinching top spot in the East, capped by victories over the Tiger-Cats (108) in the final two games of their regular-season schedule.
Here’s how the two sides compare going into Sunday.
OFFENCE
Three key Redblacks stats: league-best 5,806 passing yards, including 2,552 gained by receivers after catches were made; 83.5 rushing yards per game.
Three key Tiger-Cats stats: 5,148 passing yards; league-best 530 points scored; four different starting quarterbacks because of injuries to Zach Collaros and Jeff Mathews, who did resume practising this week.
Ottawa quarterback Henry Burris will start a CFL division final for the sixth time, with a 2-3 record in previous appearances with Saskatchewan, Calgary and Hamilton. No current Hamilton quarterback has started even once with a Grey Cup berth on the line.
Redblacks tailback William Powell (447 yards in seven games) and the Ticats’ C.J. Gable (293 in five) provide a suitable counter-balance to the pass-heavy attacks of both teams.
Ottawa may decide to dress Jeremiah Johnson (448 yards), who hasn’t played since Oct. 6 because of a dislocated left foot, but Powell will start.
This game will feature six players who compiled more than 1,000 receiving yards. The Ticats’ Luke Tasker missed practice Thursday and Terrell Sinkfield rolled an ankle in last week’s semifinal victory against Toronto, but both are expected to play.
The Redblacks’ grand four — Greg Ellingson, Brad Sinopoli, Chris Williams and Ernest Jackson — are all healthy and rested after the first-round bye, and No. 5 receiver Maurice Price is expected to play after recovering from a concussion in the regular-season finale.
“Quite honestly, we’re tired of practising against each other,” Williams, No. 1 among Redblacks and No. 3 in the league with 1,214 receiving yards, said following Friday’s workout, the sixth on-field session since his team last played, “and we’re ready to go hit somebody else. We’re ready.”
The Redblacks beat the Ticats by four field goals to two in Hamilton on Nov. 1. Burris hadn’t practised in the week leading up to that contest because of a left knee injury, but he played with a brace, while Mathews struggled even worse in the gusting winds and was concussed in the fourth quarter.
With Jacory Harris and Jeremiah Masoli splitting time at QB six days later, the Ticats relied on special teams and defence, but still lost 44-28, with Burris throwing a career-best six touchdown passes.
DEFENCE
Three key stats for the Redblacks: league-best 62 quarterback sacks, 298 net yards per game allowed and 26 interceptions.
Three key stats for the TigerCats: league-best 52 turnovers and eight defensive TDs, but only eighth-best 38 sacks.
Hamilton linebacker Simoni Lawrence is a playmaking machine and East Division nominee for the CFL’s top defensive player award, but last week he twice required attention for what appeared to be a sore hip. Worse, top-grade defensive end Eric Norwood seems to be done for the season with a knee injury. Arnaud Gascon-Nadon is to start in his place Sunday, with Troy Davis added as a backup.
East Division all-star halfback Jerrell Gavins expects to return for the Redblacks after missing two games with a hamstring injury; the bye week surely benefited him. Abdul Kanneh returns to cornerback, restoring the team’s strongest lineup in the secondary and adding downfield insurance behind a pass rush that sacked Mathews, Harris and Masoli.
If Mathews returns at quarterback — he practised Friday — the Ticats’ passing game poses a reasonable threat. Masoli is more dangerous as a runner.
“It doesn’t matter,” Redblacks defensive end Shawn Lemon, who signed in mid-season and became a much bigger factor late in the schedule, said about which QB starts for the opponents on Sunday. “As long as we come out and do what we have to do, they’re all just jerseys in the way of us and our goal right now.”
The Redblacks won all three times after scheduled byes or weeklong breaks during the regular season, and Lemon said there was zero chance they would play sluggishly on Sunday.
“No way! No way! It’s too much (at stake). Look at this,” Lemon said, gesturing at a couple of hundred folks who attended the practice that was open to the public. “We have fans out here (Friday), coming to watch us, Day 3 of practice. Everybody is excited, the city is excited. The game will be sold out. I don’t think it’s possible for us to come out flat.”
SPECIAL TEAMS
Three key stats for the Redblacks: league-worst 30.8 net yards punting; second-worst 38.8 net yards on kickoffs; ninth-best punt return average of 6.3 yards.
Three key stats for the TigerCats: league-best four punt-return TDs by Brandon Banks and punt-return average of 12.4 yards; second-worst net punting average of 33.4 yards.
The Redblacks don’t have to win the battle on special-teams, but they can’t get away with losing it as badly as they did in the regular-season finale. The Ticats scored two points on Banks’ 127yard return of a missed convert, six on Rico Murray’s onside punt recovery and six on the play after Sinkfield’s 62-yard punt return.
Ronnie Pfeffer (sprained left ankle) remains sidelined, so Chris Milo will again punt and kick field goals for the Redblacks. The Ticats’ Justin Medlock a skilled kicker, but an average punter.
“Making sure we keep the change in our pockets,” Jamill Smith, who was brought back late in the season to return punts and kickoffs, said of the Redblacks’ priority for specialteams play. “Make sure we don’t take penalties and we have the ball after every special-teams play.”
INTANGIBLES
While the core of their roster knows what it takes to win the East final, the Tiger-Cats are just 3-5 since Collaros injured his right knee, including last week’s home playoff victory against the Argos. Still, their defence remains strong and their special teams pose a threat every time the ball is kicked.
The Redblacks don’t match up as well on special teams, but their defence is as competent as that of the Ticats, maybe more so, and the Burris-led offence is much more capable of putting up points.
“The thing I like about this team, because I have been on some other (CFL) playoff teams,” Redblacks head coach Rick Campbell said, “is they’re just focused on Sunday at one o’clock. There’s a bunch of things that you can speculate about and talk about and all those things, but, really, what it comes down to is lining up and playing good football for 60 minutes, and that’s what we are trying to focus on. Our guys have done a good job of that so far.”
Everybody is excited, the city is excited. The game will be sold out. I don’t think it’s possible for us to come out flat.