Trump support plunges as Clinton takes poll lead
• Support for Donald Trump has plunged as he has alienated fellow Republicans and large majorities of voters overall in the course of a month of self-inflicted controversies, propelling Democrat Hillary Clinton to a double-digit lead nationally in a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
The survey finds sweeping unease with the presumptive Republican nominee’s candidacy — from his incendiary rhetoric and values to his handling of both terrorism and his own business — foreshadowing that the November election could be a referendum on Trump more than anything else.
Roughly two in three Americans say they think Trump is unqualified to lead the nation; are anxious about the idea of him as president; believe his comments about women, minorities and Muslims show an unfair bias; and see his attacks on a federal judge because of his MexicanAmerican heritage as racist.
A slimmer majority say they disapprove of the way Clinton has handled questions about her use of a personal email server while she was secretary of state, and half of Americans are anxious about the prospect of a Clinton presidency, underscoring the historic unpopularity of the two candidates.
In fact, so strong is many Americans’ opposition to Clinton and desire for a change in Washington that even some registering their disapproval of Trump say that as of now they feel compelled to vote for him.
Nevertheless, in a head-tohead election matchup, Clinton leads Trump 51 per cent to 39 per cent among registered voters, the poll found.
As the general election gets underway, Trump’s political standing is on dangerous ground. Fifty-six per cent of the public at large say the celebrity business mogul stands against their beliefs, while 64 per cent say he does not have the necessary credentials to be president. Fifty-six per cent feel strongly that he is unqualified. Nearly one-third of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say Trump is unqualified for office, and 18 per cent say he does not represent their beliefs, exposing deep fissures in the GOP base as Trump struggles to unite conservatives going into next month’s convention in Cleveland.
The poll, conducted in the immediate aftermath of a massacre in Orlando, Fla., that was perpetrated by a man who pledged allegiance to the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, showed President Barack Obama’s approval rating at 56 per cent — its highest level in Post polling since May 2011, after the killing of Osama bin Laden.
Obama is more popular now than Republicans George W. Bush and George H.W. Bush in the waning months of their presidencies. Although Obama’s approval rating has not reached the level of former Democratic president Bill Clinton’s in 2000, his standing suggests that he could be an effective surrogate for Clinton on the campaign trail.
Clinton’s support has risen significantly among male registered voters, jumping 11 percentage points since May to tie with Trump’s at 45 per cent. Trump’s support fell by 11 percentage points among men overall and by 10 percentage points among white men specifically, a bloc with which he still enjoys a substantial advantage over Clinton.
Although Trump leads Clinton among white voters overall, 50 per cent to 40 per cent, he trails her badly among non-white voters, 77 per cent to 15 per cent. His is the smallest Republican advantage with whites for a Republican presidential candidate since 1996, when Bob Dole lost to Bill Clinton in a rout.
Trump has been claiming that he would pick up Democrat Bernie Sanders’ supporters but there is little evidence that they will do that. Sanders supporters aren’t just rallying around Clinton; they’re doing it rather quickly. The poll shows that Sanders backers, who were reluctant to jump over to Clinton, are coming home faster than expected. Last month, 20 per cent of Sanders supporters said they would back Trump over Clinton. This month, that figure is down to eight per cent.
And the poll was conducted before Sanders began saying last week that he would support Clinton over Trump in the general election. (Even as he’s not endorsing Clinton and is still technically a candidate, Sanders said his supporters would and should not vote for a “bigot” like Trump.)
The Post-ABC poll was conducted June 20-23 among a random national sample of 1,001 adults reached on cellular and land line phones. The margin of sampling error for overall results is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Paul Manafort, chairman of Trump’s campaign, denied that the campaign is falling behind Clinton’s and said “major announcements” will be made this week.
“Our campaign is organized. We’re ready. We’re going to have a good convention, and we’re confident that we are not behind the Clinton campaign,” Manafort said. “They’re muscle-bound. We’re not.”