CANADIAN JOBS BOUNCE BACK
We’re still recovering from recession
When compared to many of its global counterparts, Canada’s employment record since the 2008 recession hasn’t been too shabby — but it hasn’t been anything to brag about either.
The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, in a report released Thursday, said 65 per cent of working-age Canadians had jobs in the first quarter of 2016. But that reading is still two percentage points below the level seen in the fourth-quarter of 2007 — the OECD’s pre-recession benchmark.
“While Canada has experienced a fairly solid labour market recovery since the trough of the global recession, the decline in commodity prices since mid-2014 has slowed the recovery,” the OECD said in its report.
Even so, Canada’s job performance has been slightly better than in the United States, where employment remains three percentage points lower than before the crisis.
“The U.S. is an exception to the general OECD trend,” the Parisbased think-tank said.
“This reflects the fact that the (U.S.) participation rate has not bounced back following a sharp fall during the Great Recession, whereas participation rates are now above their pre-crisis level in the majority of OECD countries.”
U.K. employment, meanwhile, had been expected to return to prerecession levels in 2017, but that was before the Brexit crisis burst the country’s economic bubble.
On Friday, both Canada and the United States will release their jobs numbers for June.
Forecasters expect the labour force survey for Canada to show employment growth declined by about 6,000 positions — after three previous monthly gains that average of around 17,000.
Canada’s unemployment rate could also have edged up from the May level of 6.9 per cent. Again, the OECD points out, that is certainly better than the recession high of 8.6 per cent in 2009.
“After falling during 2010-14, the unemployment rate has edged back up as energy-producing provinces experienced rising unemployment due to the drop in commodity prices,” the OECD said. “However, the unemployment rate is projected to slowly continue to decrease in 2017.”
In the U.S., analysts are anticipating job creation of 110,000 in June, pushing the unemployment rate up to 4.9 per cent from 4.7 per cent the previous month — but still around its pre-crisis level, according to the 34-nation organization.
Meanwhile in the U.K., the OECD said that “since 2012, the proportion of the working-age population in work has grown strongly to a record level.”
But now, “short-term labour market prospects are likely to be negatively affected by the recent referendum decision to leave the EU.”
As well, the global think-tank estimates the fallout in the U.K. from the June 23 Brexit vote could cut GDP growth by 0.5 percentage points in both 2017 and 2018. By 2020, it said there could be a cumulative loss in GDP of three per cent.
“Brexit therefore represents a cloud over the U.K.’s recent ability to create jobs,” the OECD said.