CHRISTY CLARK’S BIG DECISION.
Pipeline decision looms over B.C. premier
Christy Clark, the B.C. premier, now gets an opportunity to be a nation builder — or breaker.
The binary nature of the decision she must imminently take — whether to support the twinning of Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain pipeline from Alberta to the Pacific, playing to reason, or oppose it, playing to the antioil lobby — allows just these two possible outcomes.
Because Clark faces reelection in eight months, and because a federal cabinet decision on the project looms in December, kicking the can down the road will not be an option. The livelihoods of thousands of Canadians who work in the energy sector or related trades — and incidentally, the success or failure of the Trudeau government’s linked energy and climate strategies — hang in the balance.
What’s curious is that, despite Clark’s having recently secured federal cabinet approval of the proposed $36-billion Pacific Northwest liquefied natural gas project, something for which she campaigned, and despite inter-provincial pipelines being federal jurisdiction, the outcome is uncertain.
Since Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s announcement Monday of a graduated national price on carbon, the caterwauling has not ceased. The Tories have bolted back into the burning barn of carbon-tax-pocalypse messaging that served them so miserably in last year’s election. The New Democrats, predictably, have gone full Leap Manifesto.
The result has been to squeeze the Liberals to the centre — which is just where they want to be. Had Tories and Dippers been working from a script written in the Prime Minister’s Office, question period this week would not have gone much differently than it did.
The reality is that the Liberals, running out of time to act on what was among their top two or three platform commitments, rolled this out the only way they practically could, with cautious targets that deliberately fell short of measures the four most populous provinces — Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia and Alberta — have already launched. This, combined with the sweetener that all revenue from any federal carbon tax will remain in the province in which it is levied, effectively seals the deal.
Premier Brad Wall of Saskatchewan, who enjoys poking a stick in Ottawa’s eye from time to time, has complained about this encroachment on his turf. He may continue to do so. But he can offset any effect with tax cuts of his own, since his treasury will keep the revenue. In effect, Trudeau’s plan hands the premiers a stick with which to beat him, while feathering their nests. This is not something they can resist, whatever they may say publicly.
Even Alberta Premier Rachel Notley’s “ultimatum” in response to the climate plan — she will accept no national carbon-reduction regime unless Ottawa gets a new oil pipeline to tidewater — has the ring of careful staging. Her demand becomes an additional lever in the Liberals’ tool kit, as they seek to persuade skeptics east and west that new pipeline infrastructure is a strategic necessity, not just for Alberta but for the country — and, critically, that such a buildout is environmentally acceptable because of the offsetting effect of systematic emissions reductions nationwide.
And this leads, inexorably and uniquely, back to Trans Mountain, a pipeline built in 1953, much of it underground, and operated without incident since. This expansion would triple its capacity. Keystone XL is off the table, a victim of U.S. climate politics. Energy East looks increasingly dicey. Only the $6.8-billion Trans Mountain expansion — because pipe is in place along most of the route — seems viable. It is also pointed west, where the biggest potential markets for Canadian oil lie.
The National Energy Board gave its blessing last spring, with 157 conditions. The B.C. government has five conditions of its own, which include enhanced spill protection, consultations with aboriginal groups and a “fair share” clause that seems to come down to how much Kinder Morgan is willing to pay for the privilege of spending billions to further B.C.’s, Alberta’s and Canada’s industrial development.
Among other measures, the company proposes $150 million for an improved marine spill response, including a new base in Vancouver Harbour. It is working with the federal and provincial governments to meet all five B.C. conditions — at least two of which, better marine spill safety and accommodations with aboriginals — are not uniquely within its control. The Trudeau Liberals, for their part, say they are determined to go the extra mile on marine and environmental safeguards. “The PM is not going to approve anything he thinks will harm the B.C. coast,” said a Liberal familiar with the file.
Ultimately though, whether this proceeds smoothly — and perhaps at all — depends on Clark. Legally, Ottawa can force the issue. Practically, given how Energy East has unwound in Quebec, it may be unable to.
Alberta’s climate measures, begun last November, and now Trudeau’s emissions plan, have given her the arguments she needs to say yes. The next move is hers.