Wallonia’s woes shouldn’t stop agenda on free trade

In a fictional-sounding — but very real — place named Wallonia, the future of free trade is reeling badly, with potentially graver consequences for Canada than those we fear from the presidential race south of the border.

Wallonia is a sub-region of Belgium that continues to hold out against the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), a deal Canada negotiated painstakingly for years under the Stephen Harper administration before reaching agreement in principle with the 500-million-strong European Union in 2013. Under Belgian law, little Wallonia — with its population just slightly below that of the census metropolitan area of Calgary — can effectively veto the trade agreement.

“It is now evident … that the European Union is incapable of reaching an agreement,” said an utterly exasperated Trade Minister Chrystia Freeland before walking out of the stalled negotiations with EU and Wallonian officials Friday.

The hold-up seems ludicrous, but it’s just another example of the fantasy politics sweeping Europe, where a majority of Britons voted earlier this year to spurn the EU, and where stirrings of tribalism and protectionism have reared their heads to challenge both the stability of European countries and the global economy. Free trade, a clear benefit to people in most countries, is suffering as a result.

Canada’s trade position is now fragile, though perhaps not as fragile as one might think. It is true that both U.S. presidential candidates have taken shots at the budding Trans-Pacific Partnership while on the hustings, and Donald Trump has frequently attacked NAFTA, the North-American free trade deal. If North American trade were to unravel, things would get ugly. But the chances of Trump winning appear slim. Hillary Clinton, meanwhile, has a better grip on the advantages of trade, including NAFTA, and knows Canada. She is likely to proceed on the file soberly, despite her Bernie-Sanders-inspired campaign rhetoric.

If Canada can’t patch things up with Europe, however — if, that is, the Europeans can’t figure out how to not be held hostage to Wallonia or any other navel-gazing principality — the trade focus for the Liberal government may shift in ways that aren’t to our advantage. We refer to China.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, enthralled with the Asian superpower, dreams of one day signing a trade deal with it. But this plan is fraught, given China’s authoritarian structure, expansionary appetite and dreary human rights record; indeed one reason Pacific-rim countries negotiated the TPP was to balance Beijing ’s influence. Better, we think, to return to talks in Wallonia than to pursue a powerful but dangerous partner.