Trudeau’s Castro and the truth

CUBA’S ‘IMPROVEMENTS’ A CHIMERA: ANALYSIS

“A legendary revolutionary and orator, Mr. Castro made significant improvements to the education and health care of his island nation.” — Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, statement on the death of Fidel Castro, Nov. 26, 2016.

In his surprisingly warm statement on the death of the Cuban dictator, Justin Trudeau referred to what he called “significant improvements” in education and health care in Cuba under Fidel Castro. This is a commonly cited sentiment about Castro’s Cuba — that despite his iron rule, he improved the lives of the Cuban people, especially the poor. Asked whether Trudeau’s assessment was really valid, Glenn Kessler of The Washington Post explores the issue:

Obviously, it is impossible to go in a time machine and explore what would have happened if Castro had not overthrown the military dictatorship of Fulgencio Batista in 1959. But any measurement of Cuba now must take into account where Cuba stood at the time of the revolution — and whether it maintained its place among Latin American nations during Castro’s rule.

We also have to acknowledge that any data from the Cuban government is naturally suspect. Experts say that official statistics must be treated gingerly and skeptically, as police states generally are not known to provide accurate numbers. In particular, Cuba’s relatively high ranking — 67 out of 188 countries — in the United Nations’ Human Development Index appears to be affected by questionable data.

A rigorous effort to establish an accurate picture of pre-revolutionary living standards in Cuba, published in the Journal of Economic History in 2012, found that Cuba significantly lagged its counterparts in the region during Castro’s rule. “Since current living standards appear to be below the levels of the late republic, it is hard to visualize any scenario where the republic would not have outperformed the revolutionary economy by a considerable margin in terms of living standards,” Marianne Ward-Peradoza and John Devereux wrote.

Before the revolution, Cuba was closely tied to the United States (which had once occupied it), and so roads, railways and hotels had been built with U.S. investments. Ward and Devereux calculated that Cuba’s per capita income in 1955 was 50 to 60 per cent of the top western European levels — and about the same as Italy’s per capita income at the time. Cuba’s consumption was relatively high as a share of gross domestic product.

But after the revolution, ties with the United States were cut and Washington imposed an embargo (though Cuba still traded with much of the rest of the world). Significant aid to bolster the economy came from the Soviet Union and then, in recent years, from Venezuela.

Using comparisons with data for Costa Rica and Argentina, the pair calculated that Cuban consumption levels in 2000 were 52 per cent of 1955 levels. At the time, Cuba was still suffering the aftereffects of the collapse of the Soviet Union. In 2007, they estimated, Cuba’s per-capita consumption was 72 per cent of the 1955 level.

As for health care and education, Cuba was already near the top of the heap before the revolution. Cuba’s low infant mortality rate is often lauded, but it already led the region on this key measure from 1953 to 1958, according to data collected by Carmelo MesaLago, a Cuba specialist and professor emeritus at the University of Pittsburgh. In terms of life expectancy, Cuba was in fourth place in the mid-1950s — and advanced to third from 2005 to 2007. Literacy was also high — fourth place in the 1950s — and Cuba advanced to second place from 2005 to 2007.

“We suspect that overall healthcare outcomes would not have been much different given the remarkably low levels of infant mortality in Republican Cuba,” WardPeradoza and Devereux wrote. But they said the revolution probably improved education.

In particular, gaps between the rich and poor were narrowed after the revolution. Free national public education was expanded, as was the free public-health system. The number of rural hospitals increased from one to 62, for instance. The Cuban health-care system in particular places strong emphasis on preventive medicine, making it easy for Cubans to get checkups.

But in terms of GDP, capital formation, industrial production

and such key measures as cars per person, Cuba plummeted from the top ranks to as low as 20th place. That came at a cost, even though Cubans are well-educated.

“Cuba probably has the besteducated population in the region, but the considerable investment in human resources is partly lost due to the low wages paid and lack of incentives that force professionals to emigrate or stay but abandon their state work and shift to private non-professional activities that allow them to survive,” MesaLago said.

Reporters have also documented that Cuban hospitals are ill-equipped. A 2004 series on Cuba’s health-care system in the National Post said pharmacies stock very little and antibiotics are available only on the black market.

Trudeau’s office declined to provide evidence that would support the prime minister’s assertion on Cuban education and health care. “With regard to your question, I will let the PM’s statement speak for itself,” said Cameron Ahmad, press secretary for Trudeau. “We, of course, recognize that Fidel Castro was a controversial figure. But Canadians have had an unwavering commitment to the Cuban people for decades, and that includes past governments.”

Trudeau appears to accept outdated Cuban government spin as current fact. The reality is that education and health care were already relatively vibrant in Cuba before the revolution, compared with other Latin American countries. Although the Castro regime has not let that slip — and given greater access to the poor — it is a stretch to claim Castro was responsible for “significant improvements,” especially more recently.

Many other Latin American countries made far more dramatic strides in the past six decades, without the need for a communist dictatorship; Cuba simply had a head start when Castro seized power.

Moreover, the focus on health care and education should not detract from the fact that overall living standards, as measured by GDP, calorie consumption and other measures, have declined significantly under communist rule. Without big handouts from first the Soviet Union and then Venezuela, the economic picture would be even worse.

In the end, Trudeau’s claim is quite dubious.