WINNERS AND LOSERS IN THE CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP RACE: THE NATIONAL POST TAKES A LOOK AT DONATIONS MADE TO CANDIDATES FROM THE START OF THE RACE TO THE END OF MARCH BY POSTAL CODE.
WINNERS & LOSERS IN THE CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP RACE
If where they’re getting their financial support is a good indication if they have what it takes to lead Canada’s official opposition party, then Chris Alexander, Andrew Saxton and Deepak Obhrai have little chance of winning the top job on May 27.
All three Conservative leadership hopefuls are getting more than 85 per cent of their donations from just two provinces. The race is structured so that each of Canada’s 338 ridings gets an equal say in selecting the new leader. That means candidates with support in just a few areas are very likely to be kicked off the ballot early on.
Working with Qlik, an analytics and data visualization company, the National Post examined donations made to Conservative leadership candidates from the start of the race to the end of March by postal code. The results provide a view of candidates’ financial support by neighbourhood, city, region and across the country.
Elections Canada capped donations in 2017 at $1,550 for the entire race, which can be divided among multiple candidates. The data includes all candidates still in the race, as well as Kevin O’Leary. The Post decided to include O’Leary because he raised a significant sum before dropping out; whoever his supporters switch to could influence the race.
Alexander is getting nearly 87 per cent of his donations from Ontario and British Columbia; Saxton has almost 90 per cent of his support from the same two provinces. Obhrai is even more reliant on two provinces: nearly 97 per cent of his support comes from Ontario and Alberta.
Concentrated support is a significant issue. If there’s no winner on the first ballot — with 13 candidates in the race that’s likely — the candidate who receives the fewest votes nationally will be dropped off the ballot. This means that if Saxton wins every riding in British Columbia, but gets little support in Manitoba (where he’s received three donations) or Saskatchewan (where he’s received none) it’ll be almost impossible for him to win.
Eight candidates have donations from all ten provinces: Erin O’Toole, Andrew Scheer, Kellie Leitch, Lisa Raitt, Maxime Bernier, Michael Chong, Pierre Lemieux and Brad Trost. This can be taken as a rough proxy for their ability to attract support nationally.
Nearly all the candidates are disproportionately reliant on Ontario. This is not necessarily a weakness, as Ontario has 121 seats in the House of Commons, representing slightly more than 36 per cent of total provincial seats. However, some candidates are getting about double that percentage in donations from Ontario, which means they are getting fewer donations from outside the province. Again, this could be a proxy for their ability to attract votes from outside the province. Alexander is the most vulnerable, with almost 78 per cent of his donations coming from Ontario. Chong is second with 67 per cent, followed by Raitt and O’Toole with 66 per cent and 65 per cent, respectively.
When Kevin O’Leary dropped out of the Conservative leadership race he cited Bernier’s support in Quebec as a reason for his endorsement. Only two of the candidates are getting more than 10 per cent of their donations from Quebec, despite the fact that slightly more than 23 per cent of all provincial ridings are in the province. Just under 45 per cent of Steven Blaney’s donations, and 12 per cent of Bernier’s donations hail from la belle province. There’s a sizable gap between Bernier and third place Alexander, who is getting six per cent of his support from Quebec.
O’Leary’s exit has created significant jockeying among the remaining candidates as they try and pick up his supporters. From a fundraising standpoint, Bernier and Leitch are the clear front runners. He’s outpacing her in most cities that have supported Conservatives in recent years, including Calgary and Regina, as well as less Tory-friendly metropolises such as Toronto and Montreal.
O’LEARY’S EXIT HAS CREATED JOCKEYING AMONG CANDIDATES. CHONG AND RAITT HAVE RECEIVED $100 EACH IN NUNAVUT.
She has the lead in much of southern Ontario, as well as Edmonton and St. John’s.
There are four candidates trying to position themselves as a moderate alternative between Leitch’s rhetoric and Bernier’s libertarianism. Scheer, O’Toole, Raitt and Chong have all described themselves as people who could come up the middle. Chong had been the fundraising leader of the group throughout 2016, but O’Toole and Scheer both surpassed him in 2017.
Obhrai is the most reliant candidate on the Tory heartland of Alberta, with nearly 47 per cent of his donations coming from the province. Next is Rick Peterson at 26 per cent, followed by Bernier.
In urban areas there are clear leaders. Regina MP Scheer is dominating in his hometown where he’s brought in more than eighteen times as much money as the next candidate.
Vancouver native Saxton has raised $40,000 more than any rival in his hometown, bringing in $125,740. Bernier has an even larger lead in Calgary, where he’s brought in $172,662, compared with O’Leary’s $90,395, and Leitch’s $60,804. In Halifax, O’Toole has a slight edge over Leitch — $6,007 versus $5,506.
Chong and Raitt have received $100 each in Nunavut — they’re the only two candidates still in the race to have raised money in the territory.