CAN G20 TRUMP-PROOF THE PLANET?
Multilateral theme of such meetings run contrary to U.S. president’s ‘America First’ approach to the economy
Any port in a storm, the saying goes, and so it’s fitting leaders of the G20 — including Prime Minister Justin Trudeau — are gathering this weekend in maritime Hamburg to discuss “shared approaches to Trump-proofing the world.”
Fine, the actual strapline for this G20 meeting is “shaping an interconnected world,” but that’s just polite diplo-speak for how to “cut the U.S. out until it dials down the crazy.”
Given the recent goings on in Washington, D.C., a little prophylaxis is certainly in order.
Although he claims (and claims, and claims) to be The. Most. Successful. President. Ever., Trump’s touch is (so far) more Götterdämmerung than gold. Whether it’s health or tax reform at home, or NATO’s future abroad, the America First agenda is long on chaos and short on accomplishment.
It’s also, by definition, hostile to multilateralism. Will the G20, itself a creation of American diplomacy, be able to convince the president of its merits? Or at least that it’s undeserving of one of his fits of Twitter-piqué?
While the president hasn’t had much to say — good or bad — about the G20, the atmospherics of the meeting aren’t likely to please. First, it’s the weekend, and he won’t be at a golf course. Second, thousands of angry protesters are expected to take to Hamburg ’s streets to audition for the roles of “psycho” Joe and “low IQ” Mika in this week’s episode of Modern Day Presidential.
Not that what’s going on in the plenary room will be more appealing. We already know the president won’t have much to contribute to the central discussion on climate change, having poleaxed the Paris Accord and promised to power the U.S. with coal. Hence, the need for G20 leaders to plot rearguard action on other joint policy fronts where Trump is a known hostile, such as trade.
Granted, these will be awkward conversations to have with Trump in the room, not that the president will necessarily be aware or engaged. He can, perhaps, be excused on that front.
Few participants will admit it, but the G20 that was indispensable when the bottom was falling out of the global economy has lost its purpose absent the sharp threat of worldwide economic devastation. With his ambivalence, Trump has (unwittingly) highlighted a problem others have chosen to avoid: What is the point of the G20?
Worse, with Trump, the G20 now finds itself caught in a catch-22: absent a mega global problem to solve, it can’t prove its worth, and absent U.S. buyin, it can’t solve a mega global problem. Perhaps that’s why the host Germans have done the safe thing and opted for smaller summit ball.
The environment, trade and migration are worth a chat, but they’re either already discussed extensively elsewhere (e.g. trade and climate), or better solved regionally (migration). It’s almost as if the topics have been selected to allow leaders to virtue signal Trump, rather than solve a problem.
Talk of the G20 communiqué — a document that once moved markets — will easily be eclipsed by Trump’s first meeting as American president with Vladimir Putin. The two men aren’t likely to agree on much — much less reveal any collusion during the presidential campaign — but the handshake off the top of their meeting is going to be the image of our alpha age.
At this point, the best (only?) argument in the G20’s favour is that it gets the world’s heavyweights in the same room at an appointed hour. A fixed date also means the world’s tyrants can schedule their eruptions in the run-up to ensure a place on the agenda.
Speaking of Kim Jong-un’s recent run of rocketing, it’s good that presidents Trump, Xi, Moon and Prime Minister Abe are around this weekend for a chat on North Korea. Trump has already set the table for their discussion by tweeting that China needs to make a “heavy move” on the Hermit Kingdom; let’s hope a face-to-face session can flesh out whether that means something other than a nuclear holocaust.
North Korea is about the only file Trump consistently frames as a multilateral problem. If Justin Trudeau and the leaders of the G20 are sincere in their desire for an engaged United States, it will be incumbent on them to find ways to be helpful to Trump on other problems he can’t solve on his own. The heavy economic and geopolitical impact of cybercrime seems a natural fit, and while the G20 finance ministers have previously opined on it, that it keeps happening, and at an increasing scale, means more needs to be done.
It might not feel good to hew to Trump in this way, but the answer to a Leader of the Free World hell-bent on the solo use of his tremendous lever of power could just be to procure problems that fit its shape.